2025 - Round 17 : Full On

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We’re finally back to a full round of nine games this week although, given a free choice, you’d probably have said “not those nine”. Six of them are expected to be won by more than 4 goals, two by between 3 and 3-and-a-half goals, and just one by a single-digit margin.

Seems unlikely we’ll see much contrarianism from the Head-to-Head Predictors then. Let’s check.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Indeed, the only contrarian tips this week come from Home Sweet Home in 5 games, and Consult the Ladder in that lone game with a single-digit expected margin.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are double-digit forecast ranges in seven games, most notably 33 points in the Roos v Dogs clash, 25 points in the Cats v Tigers clash, and 20 points in the Eagles v Giants matchup.

MoSHBODS_Marg is the extreme Predictor in six games, and ENS_Linear, Bookie_3, and Bookie_9 in three games each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are only two games with a double-digit percentage point forecast range: 14% points in the Eagles v Giants game, and 13% points in the Crows v Dees game.

MoSSBODS_Prob is the extreme Predictor in seven games, and Bookie_RE in four games.

WAGERS

An unnecessarily confident MoSHBODS has found apparent value in three head-to-head and four line markets this week. The head-to-head wagers range in size from just 0.9% to 3.7%, and total just under 6% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and the line wagers range in size from just 0.6% to 3.9%, and total just over 9% of the original Line Fund.

The head-to-head bets are on two underdogs and one favourite, and the line bets on three underdogs and one favourite.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The week’s Ready Reckoner reveals that Brisbane Lions, narrowly, carry the most risk in the sense that the difference between a win by 27 points and a loss represents 4.9% of the original Combined Portfolio. On the same metric West Coast carry 4.8% risk, Carlton 3.2%, and Essendon 1.6%.

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just over 7c, while a worst case set would snip just under 7.5c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.