2025 - Team Ratings After Round 16

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MoSSBODS left its Top 4 teams unchanged this week, while MoSHBODS swapped Adelaide in for Brisbane Lions at position number four.

Altogether, MoSSBODS made eight changes and MoSHBODS 10, all mostly by a single spot the exceptions being Adelaide up 2 and Carlton down 2 on MoSSBODS, and Sydney up 2 and Carlton down 2 on MoSHBODS.

At the end of it all, the two Systems share a Top 3 of Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, and Geelong.

Overall, MoSSBODS now has 11 teams rated as above average, as does MoSHBODS, and both have the same 11 teams on that list.

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.977 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 0.92 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS still with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Pies. On defence, MoSSBODS now has a Top 3 of Pies, Dogs, and Lions, while MoSHBODS now has Pies, Crows, and Lions.

MoSSBODS now has 11 teams rated as above average on offence, while MoSHBODS has only 9. MoSSBODS still has 11 teams rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS still has only 10.

Offensive ratings on MoSSBODS currently span a range of 1.44 standard deviations (which has slightly shrunk) and defensive ratings a range of 1.2 standard deviations (which has also shrunk). Offensive ratings on MoSHBODS span a range of 1.52 standard deviations (which has slightly widened) and defensive ratings a range of about 1.11 standard deviations (which has shrunk).

We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSHBODS Rating (with thanks to www.footyjumpers.com for the use of their exquisite team guernseys)

On MoSHBODS, 8 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (up 1), 6 are rated negatively on both (no change), two are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and two are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (down 1).

The correlation between the teams’ MoSHBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.83, which is up a fraction on last week.

To put the latest MoSHBODS Ratings in some historical context, here are the Ratings of teams across V/AFL history as at the end of their respective Round 16s.

The Western Bulldogs have dropped slightly below the top decile for the Combined Rating of teams that went on to make their Grand Final.

And, finally, it’s time to take a look at MARS, which re-ranked only six teams this week, including putting Adelaide into 3rd ahead of Collingwood.

Further down, Sydney took 10th from Carlton, and West Coast 17th from Richmond.

Just over 21.5 Rating Points now separates 1st from 9th now, which roughly equates to a score gap at a neutral venue of about 17 points.

By way of comparison, at the end of Round 16 last season, the gap between 1st and 9th was just over 31 Rating Points, or roughly 25 points. Sydney was at that point ranked 1st with a Rating of 1,036.8, Melbourne were 9th on 1,005.4, and North Melbourne were last on 951.1.

There are now 10 teams rated better-than-average by MARS, with Carlton’s 997.1 the next-closest.

Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and comparing them with the teams’ competition ladder positions (determined based on percentage of possible competition points collected and then for and against percentage), we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:

HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Essendon

LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Western Bulldogs, Sydney, and Melbourne (ignoring MARS)

MoSSBODS this week provides the most outlying rankings at 9, ahead of MARS with 8, and MoSHBODS with only 1.

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of 9 teams now, MoSSBODS and MARS about only 6, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS about 8 (and including the Top 3).

Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that Fremantle, GWS, and now Melbourne have the widest range of rankings at four spots, but that there are no other teams whose rankings span more than two spots.

There are also five teams that the Systems unanimously rank: Essendon, Hawthorn, St Kilda, West Coast, and Western Bulldogs.

Broadly speaking the various Rating Systems generally moved a little closer in terms of their rankings this week (MARS and MoSSBODS being a slight exception), as shown by the rank correlations below:

  • MARS with MoSSBODS: +0.926 (was +0.93)

  • MARS with MoSHBODS: +0.971 (was +0.965)

  • MoSSBODS with MoSHBODS: +0.975 (was +0.969)