2025 - Round 16 Results - Let's Call It a Draw
/All of the seven early-week favourites were successful this weekend, so contrarianism was the only reason not to tip the card.
One-game contrarians were MoSHPlay_Marg, ENS_Linear, MoSHBODS_Marg, and Consult the Ladder, and the only two-game contrarian was Home Sweet Home.
All of which meant that MoSHPlay_Marg finished leading Bookie Knows Best by only tips tips, and ENS_Linear is now three tips behind Bookie Knows Best in 3rd.
The all-Tipster score came in at 6.3 from 7, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 90.9 from 134 (68%).
Margin prediction was, on average, almost 2 points per game harder this week, but easiest for Bookie_3, whose mean average error (MAE) of 23.8 points per game was almost a whole point per game better than next best Bookie_Hcap’s 24.7 points per game. MoSHPlay_Marg recorded the worst MAE of 29.6 points per game.
The all-Predictor average was 25.8 points per game, which moved the season-long average to 27.2 points per game.
The round-by-round history of Margin Predictor rankings appears below, and shows, amongst other things, MoSHPlay_Marg falling back to 7th and Bookie_3 surging into 2nd.
Log probability scores were all strongly positive and very similar for all forecasters this week.
As a result, MoSHPlay_Prob still sits atop the Leaderboard ahead of MoSHBODS_Prob, with Bookie_LPSO in 3rd, and MoSSBODS_Prob still in last place.
WAGERING
It’s red ink again this week, but the closest it’s been to black since this horror run commenced in Round 9.
Overall, the Combined Portfolio finished down by 0.1c, leaving it up by 6.6c on the season, that from a 4.7% ROI on a 1.39 turn.
