The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is 2.7 points per game, and there are five games where the difference exceeds 3 points, and one where it exceeds 7 points. Across all nine games, MoSSBODS’ average is only one point per game higher than MoSHBODS’ but still 2 points per game below the bookmakers’.

There is agreement this week about the highest scoring game and the lowest scoring team:

Highest Scoring Game

All: North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs

Lowest Scoring Game

MoS twins: Carlton v Collingwood
Bookmakers: Sydney v Fremantle

Highest Scoring Team

MoS twins: Western Bulldogs
Bookmakers: Geelong

Lowest Scoring Team

All: Richmond

WAGERS

MoSSBODS has found just two wagers this week, one of them an overs for the Perth game where showers are possible on game day, but only with 40% chance of 0-1mm, and in the morning. So, we’re betting it.

The estimated overlay in the wagered-upon games are about 9 or 10 points, and the wagers are for 3.4% and 3.9% accordingly.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw the TAB take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for Away Team Scores and Game Totals, Sportsbet do the same for Game Margins, and MoSSBODS do the same for Home Team Scores.

The TAB still has the season-long lead on all four metrics, however.

Those leads are now as follows:

Game Margins: the TAB 4 points ahead of Sportsbet, 78 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 189 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Home Team Scores: TAB 3 points ahead of MoSHBODS, 12 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 83 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Away Team Scores: the TAB 10 points ahead of Sportsbet, 54 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 99 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Game Totals: TAB 7 points ahead of Sportsbet, 17 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 50 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were three bets last week, two unsuccessful unders wagers with the TAB, and one successful unders wager with Sportsbet. That left MoSSBODS with a 12 and 12 season-long record against the TAB, and now a 6 and 6 season-long record against Sportsbet. Very neat and very chance-like.

Overall, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS were on the right side of the TAB and Sportsbet in 4 games last week.

That takes MoSSBODS to 68 from 135 (51%) against the TAB and against Sportsbet, and MoSHBODS to 78 from 134 (58%) against the TAB, and 77 from 134 (58%) against Sportsbet.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.