This week we have eight-ninths of a full round and it comprises six games that are expected to be won by the home team and by less than three goals, and two games that are expected to be won by the away team and by less than four goals.
Let’s see what the models make of the eight games.
Read MoreBoth Systems moved only three teams by multiple spots this week, and both left the Top 3 untouched, meaning that there’s still unanimity that they are, in order, the Dogs, Pies, and Cats. On both Systems, the Pies and the Cats drew a little nearer to the Dogs, although the gap between the Pies and the Dogs on MoSHBODS is far smaller than on MoSSBODS.
The big movers on MoSSBODS were Adelaide (up 4 into 6th), Sydney (down 3 into 11th), and Carlton (down 2 into 9th). On MoSHBODS they were Adelaide (up 4 into 4th), Fremantle (up 2 into 8th), and Hawthorn (down 2 into 7th),
Read MoreFive of the seven early-week favourites got up this week, and, with minimal contrarianism, this was the score registered by all but Home Sweet Home (three) and MoSSBODS_Marg (four).
That left MoSHPlay still three tips clear of the field and now on 78.5 from 105 (75%).
The all-Tipster score came in at 4.7 from 7, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 70.2 from 105 (67%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay is sticking with Lions by 37 points as its final forecast and also now has preliminary thought about the remaining games in the round.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary thought about tomorrow’s game is Lions by 37 points.
The MoS twins, as is becoming the norm, have a few sizeable differences of opinion this week, with five of the seven games seeing them separated by 2 points or more in their Total forecasts, and in three of those by 4 points or more. Overall, the difference in their average Total is 2 points per game and their differences to the bookmakers’ overall averages range from 3 to 5 points per game.
Read MoreThis week we return to truncated rounds, and the seven games this week include four that are expected to be settled by less than three goals, and three that are expected to be settled by six goals or more.
Let’s see what the models make of that.
Read MoreBoth Systems moved only two teams by multiple spots this week, and both left the Top 3 untouched, meaning that there’s still unanimity that the medals currently belong to, in order, the Dogs, Pies, and Cats.
Interestingly, such was the difference in conversion rates in the Cats v Dogs game (Geelong 74% to Western Bulldogs 48%) that, when coupled with the very large Geelong venue advantage, both Systems saw fit to lift the Dogs’ underlying rating and drop the Cats’ even though the Cats ran out 127 to 113 winners.
Read MoreYet another six of the early-week favourites got up this week, and this was the score registered by all but ENS_Linear and Consult The Ladder (seven each), and Home Sweet Home and MoSSBODS_Marg (five each).
That left MoSHPlay still three tips clear of the field and now on 73.5 from 98 (75%).
The all-Tipster score came in at 6 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 65.5 from 98 (67%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay has some updated preliminary thoughts about tomorrow’s games.
MoSHPlay has settled on Cats by 2 points and also now has some preliminary thoughts about the remaining games in the round.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary thought (often it only has one) about tomorrow’s game is Cats by 2 points.
The MoS twins again have a few sizeable differences of opinion this week, with six games seeing them separated by 2 points or more in their Total forecasts and two of those by more than 5 points. Overall, however, the difference in their average Total is just a point. Their differences to the bookmakers’ overall averages range from 1 to 3 points.
Read MoreTipping winners is not getting any easier. Seven of this week’s nine games are expected to be won by three goals or less, an eighth by about six-and-a-half goals, and the ninth by just over nine goals.
Those are fairly similar numbers to what we had last week, and that produced five games with game margins under 3 goals and had most Head-to-Head Predictors scoring 6 from 9, at best.
Let’s see what the models make of the week.
Read MoreMoSSBODS moved only four teams by multiple spots this week, but that included lifting the Cats from 5th into 3rd, and dropping the Lions from 3rd into 5th. MoSHBODS re-ranked a lot more teams than MoSSBODS, but only three by multiple spots, but also moved the Cats into 3rd, meaning that the two Systems now agree about the Top 4 teams being, in order, Dogs, Pies, Cats, and Hawks.
Read MoreAnother six of the early-week favourites got up this week, and this was the score registered by all but the RSMP twins (five each), Home Sweet Home (also five), MoSSBODS_Marg (three), and Consult The Ladder (two).
That left MoSHPlay still three tips clear of the field and now on 67.5 from 89 (76%).
The all-Tipster score came in at 4.9 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 59.5 from 89 (67%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay has finished at Cats by 10 points.
MoSHPlay now has some fresh preliminary thoughts about the Sunday games.
We now have MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts about the remainder of Round 10.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary thought about tonight’s game is Suns by 8 points.
The MoS twins have a few sizeable differences of opinions this week, with five games seeing them separated by 2 points or more in their Total forecasts. Overall, the difference in their average Total is just a point. However, in contrast, their differences to the bookmakers range from 3 to 4 points.
Read MoreSeven of this week’s nine games are expected to be won by just over three goals or less, an eighth by just under four goals, and the ninth by just over five goals. Last week, numbers like those presaged a round that produced victory margins of 0, 2, 4, 5, 8, 10, 14, 15, and 35, which works out to 10.3 points per game.
A similar round should make for low MAEs and some opportunities for Head-to-Head Predictors to benefit from contrarianism.
Let’s see what the models make of the week.
Read MoreIn an interesting week, MoSSBODS lowered the Rating of its Top 4 teams, but left them in the same order, and MoSHBODS did the same for its Top 3. That left MoSSBODS with the same Top 3 of Dogs, Pies, and Lions, and MoSHBODS with the same Top 3 of Dogs, Pies, and Hawks.
Further down, MoSSBODS re-ranked only four teams this week, and all by just a single spot, while MoSHBODS also re-ranked only four teams, but two teams by two spots: the Lions down 2 into 6th, and Gold Coast up 2 into 5th.
Interestingly, Geelong gained Rating Points on MoSSBODS (because of its 31 to 25 scoring shot “victory” over GWS) but lost them on MoSHBODS, while GWS did the opposite
Read MoreSix of the early-week favourites got up this week, and another one drew, but what set this round apart was the narrowness of many of the victory margins. Along with the draw, we saw wins by 2, 4, 5, 8, 10, 14, and 15 points leaving only the Hawks’ 35-point win as the outlier.
Amongst the Head-to-Head Predictors, only ENS_Linear and Consult The Ladder joined Bookie Knows Best in recording a score of six-and-a-half, which left MoSHPlay, who scored one fewer, now three tips clear of the field and on 61.5 from 80 (77%).
The all-Tipster score came in at 5.6 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 54.6 from 80 (68%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay is sticking with Pies by two goals for tonight’s game, and now has some preliminary, fairly non-controversial, views about the rest of the round.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary thought about tomorrow night’s game is Pies by two goals.
The MoS twins are far more in agreement than usual about likely scoring for all games in Round 9, with the largest difference being just four points and the average only 1.8 points per game. They both have all-game averages below those of the bookmakers, this week by about three to four points per game.
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