2025 - Round 10 : Turns Out We Didn't Have the Advantage

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Seven of this week’s nine games are expected to be won by just over three goals or less, an eighth by just under four goals, and the ninth by just over five goals. Last week, numbers like those presaged a round that produced victory margins of 0, 2, 4, 5, 8, 10, 14, 15, and 35, which works out to 10.3 points per game.

A similar round should make for low MAEs and some opportunities for Head-to-Head Predictors to benefit from contrarianism.

Let’s see what the models make of the week.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

There’s yet a little more contrarianism this week, with Home Sweet Home (3 games) and Consult The Ladder (4 games) joined by the RSMP twins (1 game) and MoSSBODS_Marg (3 games).

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are double-digit forecast ranges in five games, most notably 14 points in the Tigers v Roos clash, 13 points in the Eagles v Saints clash, and 12 points in the Lions v Dees matchup.

MoSSBODS_Marg has Extreme Predictor status in eight games this week, and Bookie_9 and ENS_Linear in four each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there is only one game with a double-digit percentage point forecast range: 15% points in the Tigers v Roos game.

MoSSBODS_Prob has Extreme Predictor status in all nine games (sic), and Bookie_OE in four.

WAGERS

The Head-to-Head Fund has four wagers this week, ranging in size only from 0.5% to 1.9% and totalling just 4.5% of the original Fund. Meantime, the Line Fund has opted for five bets, this week ranging in size from 0.6% to 1.5% and totalling 5% of the original Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The week’s Ready Reckoner reveals that GWS and Western Bulldogs carry the most risk in the sense that the difference between a win by 18 points or more and a loss for GWS and between a win by 24 points or more and a loss for Western Bulldogs represents 2.4% of the original Combined Portfolio. On the same metric Richmond carry 1.4% risk, Collingwood 0.9%, and Brisbane Lions 0.8%.

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by 3.5c, while a worst case set would snip 4.4c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.