2025 - Round 9 : Overs/Unders

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The MoS twins are far more in agreement than usual about likely scoring for all games in Round 9, with the largest difference being just four points and the average only 1.8 points per game. They both have all-game averages below those of the bookmakers, this week by about three to four points per game.

Opinions about high- and low-scoring games are again quite different this week, but there’s broad agreement about high- and low-scoring teams, with MoSHBODS the dissenter on low-scoring team:

Highest Scoring Game

  • MoS twins: Richmond v West Coast

  • Bookmakers: Gold Coast v Western Bulldogs

Lowest Scoring Game

  • MoS twins: St Kilda v Carlton

  • Bookmakers: Fremantle v Collingwood

Highest Scoring Team

  • All: Brisbane Lions

Lowest Scoring Team

  • MoSSBODS and Bookmakers: North Melbourne

  • MoSHBODS: Melbourne

WAGERS

MoSSBODS has found three wagers this week, all unders, and all on Friday or Saturday.

The estimated overlays in the wagered-upon games range from about 7 to 10 points, and the wager sizes from 2.4% to 3.3% accordingly.

Altogether, the wagers represent just over 8% of the original Unders/Overs Fund.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw honours shared around for all forecasters but MoSHBODS, with MoSSBODS taking overall honours for Away Team Scores and Game Totals, and the TAB taking the honours for Home Team Scores and sharing them for Game Margins with Sportsbet.

Those results allowed the TAB to wrest back season-long honours for Game Margins and Home Team Scores from MoSHBODS, but also allowed MoSHBODS to wrest the lead on Away Team Scores from the TAB.

The leads are as follows:

  • Game Margins: the TAB 8 points ahead of MoSHBODS, 11 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 66 points ahead of MoSSBODS

  • Home Team Scores: the TAB 2 points ahead of MoSHBODS, 12 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 31 points ahead of MoSSBODS

  • Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS 10 points ahead of the TAB, 18 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 21 points ahead of MoSSBODS

  • Game Totals: the TAB 2 points ahead of Sportsbet, 41 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 52 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were three bets last week: two successful unders and one successful overs wager with the TAB. That left MoSSBODS with a far more respectable 6 and 8 season-long performance against the TAB, and a 3 and 2 season-long perfomance against Sportsbet.

Overall, both MoSSBODS was on the right side of the TAB and Sportsbet Totals 6 times in 9, and MoSHBODS was on the right side of the TAB and Sportsbet Totals 7 times in 9.

That takes MoSSBODS to 33 from 71 (47%) against the TAB and 34 from 71 (48%) against Sportsbet, and MoSHBODS to 39 from 71 (55%) against the TAB, and 37 from 71 (52%) against Sportsbet.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.

From this we can see that MoSSBODS is 20 from 36 (56%) and MoSHBODS is 19 from 36 (53%) since and including Round 5.