2025 - Round 9 : Pressing the Advantage

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Seven of this week’s nine games are expected to be won by thirteen points or less, an eighth by just four goals, and the ninth by just under six goals, which again portends a tough week for tipping winners.

Let’s see what the models make of it all.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

There’s a little more contrarianism this week, but Home Sweet Home (6 games) and Consult The Ladder (2 games) are still providing the bulk of it. The only other contributions are coming from the RSMP and MoS twins in the Suns v Dogs game.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are double-digit forecast ranges in seven games, most notably 23 points in the Suns v Dogs clash, 21 points in the Roos v Lions clash, 14 points in the Power v Crows derby, and the Cats v Giants matchup.

MoSSBODS_Marg has Extreme Predictor status in five games this week, and Bookie_9 in three.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are only three games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges: 21% points in the Suns v Dogs game, 15% points in the Power v Crows game, and 10% points in the Cats v Giants fixture.

MoSSBODS_Prob has Extreme Predictor status in six games, MoSHBODS_Prob in five, and Bookie_LPSO in four.

WAGERS

The Head-to-Head Fund has six wagers this week, ranging in size only from 0.1 up to 4% and totalling just over 13% of the original Fund. Meantime, the Line Fund has again opted for just four bets, this week ranging in size from 0.5 to 3.3% and totalling 5.5% of the original Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The week’s Ready Reckoner reveals that Geelong carry the most risk in the sense that the difference between a win by 14 points or more and a loss represents 5.5% of the original Combined Portfolio. On the same metric Western Bulldogs carry 1.8% risk, Adelaide 1.7%, Richmond 1.6%, Essendon 1.4%, and North Melbourne 0.8%.

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just under 6c, while a worst case set would snip under 7c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.