2025 - Team Ratings After Round 8

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MoSSBODS only re-ranked seven teams this week, but none of the Top 4, and only Adelaide (up 3 to 9th) and Fremantle (down 2 to 12th) by more than a single spot. MoSHBODS was far more trigger-happy, and moved 12 teams, but only three of them by multi-spots: Carlton down 5 to 8th, Adelaide up 3 into 6th, and St Kilda up 2 into 12th.

That left the two Systems with the same set of teams in the Top 5 and, within that quintet, placing only the Brisbane Lions and Hawthorn in a different order. Both now have the Dogs 1st, and the Pies 2nd.

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings still stands at +0.97 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 0.88 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Pies, and Lions, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Pies, and Cats. On defence, MoSSBODS now has a Top 3 of Dogs, Pies, and Lions, while MoSHBODS now has Pies, Dogs, and Lions.

MoSSBODS now has 11 teams rated as above average on offence and MoSHBODS only 10, omitting Port Adelaide from MoSSBODS’ list. MoSSBODS has 11 teams rated as above average on defence, but MoSHBODS has only 10, omitting Sydney and St Kilda but including Adelaide from MoSSBODS’ list.

Offensive ratings on MoSSBODS currently span a range of 1.3 standard deviations and defensive ratings a range of 1.36 standard deviations. Offensive ratings on MoSHBODS span a range of 1.16 standard deviations and defensive ratings a range of about 1.32 standard deviations.

We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSHBODS Rating (with thanks to www.footyjumpers.com for the use of their exquisite team guernseys)

On MoSHBODS, 9 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 7 are rated negatively on both (up 1), only 1 is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (down 2), and one is rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (up 1).

The correlation between the teams’ MoSHBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.85, which is up a little on last week.

To put the latest MoSHBODS Ratings in some historical context, here are the Ratings of teams across V/AFL history as at the end of their respective Round 8s.

There is still no team sitting above the median Combined Rating for teams that went on to make their Grand Final, but Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs remain within range.

And, finally, it’s time to take a look at MARS, which re-ranked 12 teams this week, including moving Western Bulldogs up three places into 1st, and Hawthorn up two places into 3rd.

Further down, the big movers were Collingwood down 3 into 4th, Geelong down 2 into 5th, Adelaide up 2 into 6th, Sydney up 2 into 9th, and Carlton down 3 into 10th.

About 24 Rating Points now separates 1st from 13th, which roughly equates to a score gap at a neutral venue of about 19 points.

By way of comparison, at the end of Round 8 last season, the gap between 1st and 13th was just over 30 Rating Points, or roughly 24 points. Sydney was at that point ranked 1st with a Rating of 1,023.2, Gold Coast were 13th on 992.8, and North Melbourne were last on 952.4.

There are currently 11 teams rated better-than-average by MARS.

Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and comparing them with the teams’ competition ladder positions (determined based on percentage of possible competition points collected and then for and against percentage), we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:

HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Gold Coast and Essendon

LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Western Bulldogs, Carlton and Sydney

MoSSBODS this week provides the most outlying rankings at 10, ahead of MARS with 4, and MoSHBODS with 3.

MoSSBODS is particularly different in terms of its ranking of Adelaide and Port Adelaide.

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of 12 teams, MoSSBODS and MARS about only 6, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS also about only 6.

Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that GWS has the widest range of rankings at four spots, and that there are still six other teams whose rankings span more than two spots. All but the Brisbane Lions amongst the teams with ranges of more than two spots have MoSSBODS defining one end of the range of rankings.

There are now five teams, however, that the Systems unanimously rank: Essendon, Geelong, Melbourne, West Coast, and Western Bulldogs.