Only four of the seven early-week favourites were successful this weekend, and, with only mild contrarianism once more the climate, registered scores were mostly around that number, the exceptions being Consult the Ladder and MoSSBODS_Marg’s threes, and MoSHPlay_Marg’s five.

That five saw MoSHPlay_Marg reestablish a three tip lead over Bookie Knows Bestand a five tip lead over ENS_Linear.

MoSHPlay_Marg now sits on 94.5 from 127 (74%).

The all-Tipster score came in at 3.9 from 7, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 84.6 from 127 (67%).

Margin prediction was, on average, almost 6 points per game easier this week, but easiest once again for MoSHPlay_Marg, whose mean average error (MAE) of 22.7 points per game was over three-tenths-of-point per game better than next best, RSMP_Simple’s 23 points per game. Bookie_9, recorded the worst MAE of 25.6 points per game.

The all-Predictor average was 24.1 points per game, which moved the season-long average to 27.3 points per game.

The round-by-round history of Margin Predictor rankings appears below, and shows MoSHPlay_Marg remaining into 2nd place but closing the gap to ENS_Linear.

Log probability scores were all narrowly positive for all bookmaker-based forecasters this week, and all narrowly negative for the MoS trio.

MoSHPlay_Prob still sits atop the Leaderboard, however, ahead of MoSHBODS_Prob but Bookie_LPSO has taken third place, and MoSSBODS_Prob has fallen to last.

WAGERING

This week was all very much about Geelong, and their failure meant that a seventh successive weekly loss was all but inevitable. The Western Bulldogs, in the last game of the round, repaired some of the damage.