2025 - Team Ratings After Round 15

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MoSSBODS left its Top 6 and Bottom 7 teams unchanged this week, while MoSHBODS swapped the Pies and the Cats at positions 2 and 3, lifted the Lions into 4, and moved eight other teams from lower down the ordering by a single spot.

At the end of it all, the two Systems share a Top 4 of Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, Geelong, and Brisbane Lions.

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.973 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 0.9 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS still with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Pies. On defence, MoSSBODS still has a Top 3 of Pies, Dogs, and Hawks, while MoSHBODS now has Pies, Hawks, and Lions.

MoSSBODS now has only 9 teams rated as above average on offence, as does MoSHBODS has only 9, although MoSSBODS includes Sydney and MoSHBODS GWS. MoSSBODS still has 11 teams rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS has only 10, swapping out Melbourne.

Offensive ratings on MoSSBODS currently span a range of 1.49 standard deviations (which is roughly stable) and defensive ratings a range of 1.3 standard deviations (which is also stable). Offensive ratings on MoSHBODS span a range of 1.47 standard deviations (which is slightly widening) and defensive ratings a range of about 1.22 standard deviations (which is stable).

We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSHBODS Rating (with thanks to www.footyjumpers.com for the use of their exquisite team guernseys)

On MoSHBODS, 7 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 6 are rated negatively on both (down 1), two are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and three are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (up 1).

The correlation between the teams’ MoSHBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.82, which is about the same as last week.

To put the latest MoSHBODS Ratings in some historical context, here are the Ratings of teams across V/AFL history as at the end of their respective Round 15s.

The Western Bulldogs still side in the top decile for the Combined Rating of teams that went on to make their Grand Final.

And, finally, it’s time to take a look at MARS, which re-ranked only four teams this week, putting Western Bulldogs into 1st ahead of Geelong, and switching Fremantle into 7th ahead of Gold Coast.

Just over 21 Rating Points now separates 1st from 9th, which roughly equates to a score gap at a neutral venue of about 17 points.

By way of comparison, at the end of Round 15 last season, the gap between 1st and 9th was just over 33 Rating Points, or roughly 26 points. Sydney was at that point ranked 1st with a Rating of 1,038.3, Melbourne were 9th on 1,005.0, and North Melbourne were last on 950.4.

There are now 11 teams rated better-than-average by MARS, and then a large gap to Port Adelaide on 991.2 in 12th.

Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and comparing them with the teams’ competition ladder positions (determined based on percentage of possible competition points collected and then for and against percentage), we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:

HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: GWS (ignoring MARS)

LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Western Bulldogs and Melbourne (ignoring MARS)

MARS this week provides the most outlying rankings at 9, ahead of MoSSBODS with 8, and MoSHBODS with 3.

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of only 6 teams, MoSSBODS and MARS about only 5, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS about 8 (but including the Top 4).

Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that Fremantle and GWS have the widest range of rankings at four spots, and that there are two other teams whose rankings span more than two spots.

There are also three teams that the Systems unanimously rank: Essendon, West Coast, and Western Bulldogs.

Broadly speaking the various Rating Systems generally moved a little closer in terms of their rankings this week, as shown by the rank correlations below:

  • MARS with MoSSBODS: +0.93 (was +0.926)

  • MARS with MoSHBODS: +0.965 (was +0.971)

  • MoSSBODS with MoSHBODS: +0.969 (was +0.96)