2025 - Round 16 : Just Nibbling

/

The now-usual seven games again this week, with expected victory margins ranging from 5 to 56 points, comprising three games with expected margins under 3 goals, three more in the roughly 4 to 6 goal range, and then that expected 9 to 10 goal blowout.

What do the models think?

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

The only contrarian tips this week come from Consult the Ladder (1 game), Home Sweet Home (2 games), ENS_Linear (1 game) and MoSHBODS_Marg (1 game), with three of those five coming in the Power v Blues game.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are double-digit forecast ranges in four of the seven games, most notably 23 points in the Pies v Eagles clash, 17 points in the Hawks v Roos clash, and 15 points in the Tigers v Crows matchup.

Bookie_9 is the extreme Predictor in five games, and MoSHBODS_Marg in three. MoSSBODS_Marg has the status in only a single game this week.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there is only one game with a double-digit percentage point forecast range: 11% points in the Hawks v Roos game.

MoSSBODS_Prob is the extreme Predictor in five games, and Bookie_OE and MoSHBODS_Prob in three games each.

WAGERS

A relatively subdued MoSHBODS has found apparent value in three head-to-head and three line markets this week. The head-to-head wagers range in size from just 0.8% to 2.1%, and total 4% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and the line wagers range in size from just 0.1% to 1.2%, and total just under 2% of the original Line Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The week’s Ready Reckoner reveals that Ruchmond carry the most risk in the sense that the difference between a win and a loss by 6 goals or more represents 1.6% of the original Combined Portfolio. On the same metric Hawthorn carry 1.5% risk, Carlton 1.1%, and Gold Coast 0.8%.

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just under 3c, while a worst case set would snip just over 2c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.