The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is 3.2 points per game, and there are three games where the difference exceeds 4 points. Across all seven games, MoSSBODS’ average is two points per game higher than MoSHBODS’ but still 4 points per game below the bookmakers’.

There is a very high level of agreement about the lowest- and highest-scoring teams this week, but a huge variety of opinions about the lowest- and highest-scoring games:

Highest Scoring Game

MoS twins: Sydney v Western Bulldogs
Bookmakers: Richmond v Adelaide

Lowest Scoring Game

MoSSBODS: Fremantle v St Kilda
MoSHBODS: Port Adelaide v Carlton
Bookmakers: Hawthorn v North Melbourne

Highest Scoring Team

All: Collingwood

Lowest Scoring Team

All: West Coast

WAGERS

With MoSSBODS 4 points per game below the bookmakers, on average, it’s not all that surprising that MoSSBODS has found three unders wagers for the week.

The estimated overlay in the wagered-upon games range from about 8 to 10 points, and the wager range in size from is 2.9% to 3.8% accordingly.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw the TAB take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for Game Margins and Away Team Scores, and MoSHBODS do the same for Home Team Scores and Game Totals.

The TAB still has the season-long lead on all four metrics, however.

Those leads are now as follows:

Game Margins: the TAB 5 points ahead of Sportsbet, 65 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 180 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Home Team Scores: TAB 3 points ahead of MoSHBODS, 12 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 84 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Away Team Scores: the TAB 9 points ahead of Sportsbet, 43 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 82 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Game Totals: TAB 0.001 (sic) points ahead of MoSHBODS, 6 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 47 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There was one bet last week, an unsuccessful unders wager with Sportsbet. That left MoSSBODS with a 12 and 10 season-long record against the TAB, and now a 5 and 6 season-long record against Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSSBODS was on the right side of the TAB and Sportsbet in 5 games last week. MoSHBODS registered 4 correct selections against the TAB and 5 against Sportsbet.

That takes MoSSBODS to 64 from 127 (50%) against the TAB and against Sportsbet, and MoSHBODS to 74 from 127 (58%) against the TAB, and 73 from 127 (58%) against Sportsbet.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.