2026 - Team Ratings After Round 21

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MoSHBODS changed the ranking of only seven teams again this week, including flipping Sydney into 4th ahead of Brisbane Lions but moving none of the Top 3 teams, which remain Fremantle, Hawthorn, and Geelong.

The only multi-spot movers were Carlton (up 3 into 9th) and Port Adelaide (down 2 into 13th).

MARS again rerated 11 teams, including moving Geelong into 2nd ahead of Hawthorn to leave it with a Top 3 of Fremantle, Geelong, and Hawthorn.

Its multi-spot movers were Carlton (up 3 into 9th, Brisbane Lions (down 2 into 6th), and St Kilda (down 3 into 12th).

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2026 - Round 21 Results - And Slide ...

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Eight of the nine early-week favourites won this week, which meant that contrarian tipping was mostly punished and that Bookie Knows Best joined ENS_Linear atop the Head-to-Head Tipsters’ Leaderboard, now on 136.5 from 180 (76%). MARS_Marg and RSMP_Weighted remain in joint third, four back on 132.5 (74%).

The outlying scores were sixes from the MoS twins and Consult the Ladder, and a four from Home Sweet Home.

The all-Tipster average score came in at 6.4 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 128.3 from 180 (71%).

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2026 - Round 21 : Overs/Unders

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MoSHBODS’ average total this week is, remarkably, just over the bookmakers’, and the game-by-game absolute differences range from 0 to 7.1 points. The average absolute difference between MoSHBODS’ and the TAB’s expected margins is 1.4 points per game, and between MoSHBODS’ and Sportsbet’s expected margins is 1.6 points per game.

MoSHBODS is forecasting higher totals than both bookmakers in seven games, and a lower total than bookmakers in one game.

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2026 - Round 21 : Over Confident?

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This week we again have five games expected to be decided by about two goals or less, one by about four goals, two by about five to five-and-a-half goals, and one by about seven-and-a-half goals.

Only three games have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 22.2 points per game, and six have an away team favourite with an expected victory margin of just 14.3 points per game. Across all nine games, the average expected margin is 16.9 points per game, which is about 7 points lower than last week’s average.

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2026 - Round 20 Results - It Started Well

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Seven of the nine early-week favourites won this week, but there was enough contrarian tipping for five of the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week to record eight, including ENS_Linear, who is now the outright leader on 129.5 from 171 (76%). Bookie Knows Best sits outright second on 128.5 (75%) ahead of MARS_Marg and RSMP_Weighted on 125.5.

The outlying scores were sevens from Bookie Knows Best, MARS_Marg, and Consult the Ladder, and a five from Home Sweet Home.

The all-Tipster average score came in at 7.3 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 121.8 from 171 (71%).

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2026 - Round 20 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SUNDAY 3PM

MoSHPlay has ended at Saints by 15 points.

UPDATE SUNDAY 12:45PM

MoSHPlay has ended at Lions by 39 points.

UPDATE THuRSDAY 7:15PM

MoSHPlay has ended at Adelaide by 9 points and now has preliminary views for the games in the remainder of the round.

UPDATE WEDNESDAY 6:45PM

MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tomorrow night’s game is Adelaide by 9 points.

2026 - Round 20 : Confident

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This week we have five games expected to be decided by about two goals or less, and the rest expected to be decided by between about six and nine goals.

Seven games have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 28.1 points per game, and two have an away team favourite with an expected victory margin of just 10 points per game. Across all nine games, the average expected margin is 24.1 points per game, almost identical to last week’s average.

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2026 - Round 19 Results - And Exhale ...

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Only six of the nine early-week favourites secured the four points this round, and that was the score recorded by all but two Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, which left Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear still tied for first and now on 121.5 from 162 (75%) and MARS_Marg still in outright 3rd and back on 118.5 (73%).

The two outlying scores were a seven from Consult the Ladder, and a three from Home Sweet Home.

The all-Tipster average score came in at 5.8 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 114.5 from 162 (71%).

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2026 - Round 19 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SunDAY 2:30PM

MoSHPlay has finished at Gold Coast by 2 goals.

UPDATE SATURDAY 12:30PM

MoSHPlay has finished at Fremantle by four goals.

UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM

MoSHPlay is sticking with Swans by 12 points and now has fresh preliminary views about the Sunday games.

UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM

MoSHPlay is locking in Cats by 17 points and now has preliminary views about the remaining games in the round.

UPDATE WEDNESDAY 7:15PM

MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of the Thursday night game is Cats by 17 points.

2026 - Round 19 : Not Fully Aligned

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This week we have five games expected to be decided by about two goals or less, three by about six to seven goals, and the last by just over eight goals.

Five games have away favourites with an average expected victory margin of 36.7 points per game, and four have a home team favourite with an expected victory margin of just 7.8 points per game. Across all nine games, the average expected margin is 23.8 points per game, almost identical to last week’s average.

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2026 - Team Ratings After Round 18

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MoSHBODS changed the ranking of nine teams this week, including moving Hawthorn into 2nd, dropping Geelong into 3rd, and dropping Sydney into 5th.

Further down the order, the big multi-spot movers were GWS (up 3 into 10th), and Carlton (down 3 into 13th, which makes it down 6 places in two weeks).

MARS rerated 10 teams, also moving the Lions into 3rd ahead of the Hawks.

Its multi-spot movers were Melbourne (down 2 into 5th), and Carlton (down 2 into 12th, which represents a slide of 5 places in two weeks).

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2026 - Round 18 Results - Positive

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Eight of the nine early-week favourites secured the four points this round, and that was the score that every Head-to-Head Tipster recorded, which left Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear still tied for first and now on 115.5 from 153 (76%) and MARS_Marg still in outright 3rd and back on 112.5 (74%).

The all-Tipster average score came in at 8 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 108.7 from 153 (71%).

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2026 - Round 18 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SUNDAY 4:15PM

MoSHPlay ends at Lions by 66 points.

UPDATE SUNDAY 3PM

MoSHPlay ends at Melbourne by 46 points.

UPDATE SUNDAY 12:45PM

MoSHPlay ends at Dogs by 33 points.

UPDATE FRIDAY 9:45PM

MoSHPlay has some updated preliminary views about the Sunday games.

UPDATE THURSDAY 7:45PM

MoSHPlay is sticking with the Dockers by a goal and now has preliminary views about the remaining games in the round.

UPDATE WEDNESDAY 10:15PM

MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tomorrow night’s game is the Dockers by a goal.

2026 - Round 18 : Time to Rebound

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Another nine games this week, with six expected to be decided by three goals or less, one by about six goals, one by just under seven goals, and the last by about 10 goals.

Seven of them have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 27.1 points per game, and two have an away team favourite with an expected victory margin of just 11 points. Across all nine games, the average expected margin is 23.5 points per game, about four points higher than last week’s average.

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