MoSHBODS’ average total this week is the same as the bookmakers’ or nearly so, and the largest difference for any single game is only 7 points.

There’s agreement this week only about the likely highest scoring team:

Highest Scoring Game

MoSHBODS: GWS v Geelong
Bookmakers: Brisbane Lions v Essendon

Lowest Scoring Game

MoSHBODS: St Kilda v Port Adelaide
Bookmakers: Adelaide v Gold Coast

Highest Scoring Team

All: Brisbane Lions

Lowest Scoring Team

MoSHBODS: Richmond
Bookmakers: Essendon

WAGERS

MoSHBODS fancied five wagers this week, but had two of them vetoed by the rain rule.

The three surviving wagers are all unders and total 4% of the original Overs/Unders Fund.

The estimated overlays for the wagers range from about 2 to 4.5 points.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw MoSHBODS take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for Away Team Scores and Game Totals, and Sportsbet do best outright for Game Margins and Home Team Scores. That allowed Sportsbet to take the season-long lead on Game Margins, but left the three other races with an unchanged leader.

The leads in each race are now as follows:

Game Margins: Sportsbet 1 point ahead of the TAB and 27 points ahead of MoSHBODS
Home Team Scores: TAB 5 points ahead of Sportsbet and 35 points ahead of MoSHBODS
Away Team Scores: Sportsbet 11 points ahead of the TAB, and 97 points ahead of MoSHBODS
Game Totals: Sportsbet 9 points ahead of the TAB, and 206 points ahead of MoSHBODS

It’s interesting to note that Home teams have, on average, recorded margins about 2 to 3 points higher than expected by MoSHBODS and the two bookmakers. This has occurred because the home teams have overperformed by about 2 points per game and the away teams underperformed by about 1 point per game according to MoSHBODS, but because the home teams have underperformed by about 0.3 points per game and away teams underperformed by about 2.5 points per game according to the bookmakers.

Also, Totals have been about 1 point per game higher than MoSHBODS forecasts, but about 3 points per game lower than bookmaker forecasts.

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were six bets last weekend, three unders and an over with Sportsbet, and one under and one over with the TAB. The Sportsbet unders went 2 and 1, and the overs 0 and 1, while the TAB under went 0 and 1, and the over 1 and 0.

That left MoSHBODS at 16 and 14 against the TAB and 6 and 7 against Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSHBODS was on the right side of the TAB and Sportsbet in only 4 of the 9 games, taking it to 70 from 144 (49%) for the season against the TAB, and 65 from 144 (45%) for the season against Sportsbet.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.