2026 - Round 18 : Time to Rebound

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Another nine games this week, with six expected to be decided by three goals or less, one by about six goals, one by just under seven goals, and the last by about 10 goals.

Seven of them have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 27.1 points per game, and two have an away team favourite with an expected victory margin of just 11 points. Across all nine games, the average expected margin is 23.5 points per game, about four points higher than last week’s average.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Home Sweet Home has two contrarian tips this week, and is completely alone in doing so. A very quiet week then for the Leaderboard.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there is a double-digit forecast range in four games this week, most notably 25 points in the Lions v Dons game, and 15 points in the Dogs v Eagles, and Dees v Tigers clashes.

MARS_Marg is Extreme Predictor in five games this week, and MoSHBODS_Marg in four.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, there are only two games with a double-digit forecast range, the most noteable being 11% points in the St Kilda v Port Adelaide game.

MARS_Prob is the Extreme Predictors in six games this week, and MoSHBODS_Prob in five.

WAGERS

Whilst not of the same magnitude as last week, wagering this week is still elevated compared to a few weeks ago.

There are four head-to-head wagers totalling 3.5% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and five line wagers totalling just under 6% of the original Line Fund. The only veto was of a line bet on West Coast, which did not meet the minimum required 10% estimated edge.

The only shenanigans was the line bet on Essendon where we wanted 3.1% but had to settle for 2.6% from Sportsbet. The TAB were offering 2 points less start, which was assessed as providing no additional value.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

This week, a Ready Reckoner is again very much in order.

So, best case is an increase in the price of the Combined Portfolio by just under 6c, worst case a decrease by just under 5c.

To finish, here are MoSHBODS’ and MARS’ opinions about likely team scoring, margins and probabilities.

Commentary about the MoSHBODS’ Totals forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.