2026 - Team Ratings After Round 19
/MoSHBODS changed the ranking of only six teams this week, flipping three pairs of teams including putting Geelong into 2nd ahead of Hawthorn.
MARS rerated eight teams, flipping four pairs, including moving Hawthorn into 3rd.
That left both Systems with a Top 3 of Fremantle, Geelong, and Hawthorn.
MoSHBODS RATINGS
Overall, MoSHBODS still has 11 teams rated as above average with the Blues and Dogs just falling below the cutoff.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Lions, Cats, and Swans, while on defence it still has a Top 3 of Dockers, Crows, and Hawks. Eleven teams are rated as above average on offence but now only seven on defence.
Offensive ratings currently span a range of 1.43 standard deviations (down) and defensive ratings a range of 1.29 standard deviations (up). The standard deviation of offensive ratings across all teams is 0.41 and that for defensive ratings 0.33. Teams therefore continue to be more differentiated by their offensive abilities than their defensive abilities.
The correlation between the teams’ MoSHBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.72, which is up on last week.
We can put the MoSHBODS Ratings into an historical context by looking at the offensive and defensive ratings that teams in other seasons had after Round 19 (recognising that this will have meant different numbers of games per team in different years)
We see that the Dockers and Geelong are now the only team rated above the median for Grand Finalists at this point of the season in the context of history, and that the Dockers remain very close to being in the top decile.
We can also look at the trajectory that each team has taken so far in 2026 to arrive at their current rating.
MARS RATINGS
MARS now has 11 teams rated better-than-average, with the Blues next lowest below the cutoff and probably two good results away from lifting above it.
As noted earlier, it now has the same Top 3 as MoSHBODS of Fremantle, Geelong, and Hawthorn.
The gap from 1st to 2nd is now 7.4 Rating Points (up), from 1st to 4th is 10.9 Rating Points (up), and from 1st to 10th is 34.7 Rating Points (up).
Across all 18 teams, the Ratings span 90.6 Rating Points (up), the mean is 1,000 Rating Points, and the standard deviation is 26.3 Rating Points (up).
COMPARISON OF MOSHBODS AND MARS
The correlation between MoSHBODS’ Combined Ratings and MARS’ Ratings stands at +0.989 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 0.026 times its MARS Rating less 25.8.
Looking firstly at the comparison between the ordering of the teams on MoSHBODS and MARS compared to their ordering on the competition ladder we see that the teams with the largest discrepancies are:
HIGHER ON THE LADDER THAN ON THE TEAM RATING SYSTEMS
Western Bulldogs
HIGHER ON THE TEAM RATING SYSTEMS THAN ON THE LADDER
Geelong
MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of Nine teams now, and differ by as much as three spots on only one team, Port Adelaide, who MARS have 14th and MoSHBODS have 11th.
Overall, the rank correlation between the two Systems is +0.979.
