2026 - Round 20 : Confident

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This week we have five games expected to be decided by about two goals or less, and the rest expected to be decided by between about six and nine goals.

Seven games have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 28.1 points per game, and two have an away team favourite with an expected victory margin of just 10 points per game. Across all nine games, the average expected margin is 24.1 points per game, almost identical to last week’s average.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Home Sweet Home has two contrarian tips this week, as does MARS_Marg, while the RSMP and MoS twins, plus ENS_Linear, have one each, all on the Cats.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there is a double-digit forecast range in all but one game this week, most notably 21 points in the Dockers v Eagles game, 18 points in the Hawks v Dons, and Lions v Power games, and 17 points in the Crows v Pies clash.

Bookie_9 is Extreme Predictor in six games this week, and MoSHBODS_Marg in three.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, there are only three games with a double-digit forecast range: 16% points in the Crows v Pies game, 12% points in the Giants v Swans game, and 10% points in the Lions v Power game

MoSHBODS_Prob and Bookie_LPSO are the Extreme Predictors in five games each this week, and MARS_Prob in four.

WAGERS

This week there are two head-to-head wagers totalling just under 4% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and five line wagers totalling just over 11% of the original Line Fund. The only veto was on a Port Adelaide head-to-head bet.

The only shenanigans were:

  • the line bet on Collingwood where we wanted 2.3% at $1.90 +15.5 but had to settle for 0.6% from the TAB at those values. It subsequently moved to +14.5 at which point we had no further appetite

  • the line bet on Geelong where we wanted 2.4% at $1.90 +1.5 but had to settle for 2.4% from Sportsbet at $1.89 +1.5

  • the line bet on Fremantle where we wanted 3.3% at $1.90 -44.5 but had to settle for 0.6% at those values and 2.6% at $1.89 -44.5

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Next, a Ready Reckoner on what those wagers might mean

So, best case is an increase in the price of the Combined Portfolio by just under 8c, worst case a decrease by just over 8c.

To finish, here are MoSHBODS’ and MARS’ opinions about likely team scoring, margins and probabilities.

Commentary about the MoSHBODS’ Totals forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.