2026 - Round 19 : Not Fully Aligned

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This week we have five games expected to be decided by about two goals or less, three by about six to seven goals, and the last by just over eight goals.

Five games have away favourites with an average expected victory margin of 36.7 points per game, and four have a home team favourite with an expected victory margin of just 7.8 points per game. Across all nine games, the average expected margin is 23.8 points per game, almost identical to last week’s average.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Home Sweet Home has five contrarian tips this week, and Consult the Ladder and RSMP_Simple one each.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there is a double-digit forecast range in six games this week, most notably 27 points in the Power v Dockers game, 20 points in the Tigers v Hawks game, and 18 points in the Cats v Saints, and Eagles v Lions clashes.

Bookie_3 is Extreme Predictor in five games this week and Bookie_9, RSMP_Weighted, and MARS_Marg in three each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, there are only two games with a double-digit forecast range: 18% points in the Power v Dockers game, and 16% points in the Cats v Saints game.

MoSHBODS_Prob is the Extreme Predictors in five games this week, and MARS_Prob and Bookie_OE in four each.

WAGERS

This week there is one head-to-head wager of 3.5% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and five line wagers totalling just under 18% of the original Line Fund, including an eye-watering 8.6% on Port Adelaide +38.5. The only vetoes were on Port Adelaide and West Coast head-to-head bets

The only shenanigans were:

  • the line bet on West Coast where we wanted 4.1% at $1.91 +45.5 but had to settle for 2.5% from Sportsbet at those values, and 1.3% from TAB at $1.90 +44.5

  • the line bet on Gold Coast where we wanted 3.3% at $1.91 +0.5 but had to settle for 2.5% from Sportsbet at those values

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

This week, a Ready Reckoner is again very much in order.

So, best case is an increase in the price of the Combined Portfolio by just over 11c, worst case a decrease by just over 12c.

To finish, here are MoSHBODS’ and MARS’ opinions about likely team scoring, margins and probabilities.

Commentary about the MoSHBODS’ Totals forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.