MoSHBODS’ average total this week is again the same as the bookmakers’, but the paths by which those averages have been reached are very different. In four of the nine games, MoSHBODS differs from the bookmakers by a goal or more.

There’s agreement this week about the likely highest and lowest scoring teams, but so much debate about the highest and lowest scoring games that the bookmakers’ low game is MoSHBODS’ high game:

Highest Scoring Game

MoSHBODS: West Coast v Brisbane Lions
Bookmakers: Geelong v St Kilda

Lowest Scoring Game

MoSHBODS: Port Adelaide v Fremantle
Bookmakers: West Coast v Brisbane Lions

Highest Scoring Team

All: Hawthorn

Lowest Scoring Team

All: Richmond

WAGERS

MoSHBODS fancied six wagers this week, but had one of them directly vetoed by the rain rule and three by the TGTBT rule (one of which would anyway have been vetoed by the rain rule).

The two remaining wagers are a tiny overs wager and a smallish unders wager.

The estimated overlays for the wagers are about 2.5 to 3 points.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw MoSHBODS take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for Home Team Scores and Game Totals, the TAB do best outright for AwayTeam Scores, and the TAB and Sportsbet share honours for Game Margins. That left the season-long leaders unchanged for all four contests.

The leads in each race are now as follows:

Game Margins: Sportsbet 1 point ahead of the TAB and 27 points ahead of MoSHBODS
Home Team Scores: TAB 4 points ahead of Sportsbet and 31 points ahead of MoSHBODS
Away Team Scores: Sportsbet 9 points ahead of the TAB, and 104 points ahead of MoSHBODS
Game Totals: Sportsbet 11 points ahead of the TAB, and 197 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were three bets last weekend, all of them unders and all of them successful, two with Sportsbet, and one the TAB.

That left MoSHBODS at 17 and 14 against the TAB and 8 and 7 against Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSHBODS was on the right side of the TAB and Sportsbet in 5 of the 9 games, taking it to 75 from 153 (49%) for the season against the TAB, and 70 from 153 (46%) for the season against Sportsbet.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.