2026 - Team Ratings After Round 20

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MoSHBODS changed the ranking of only seven teams this week, including flipping Hawthorn back into 2nd ahead of Geelong. The only multi-spot movers were Western Bulldogs (up 2 into 10th) and GWS (down 3 into 13th).

MARS rerated 11 teams and also flipped Hawthorn back into 2nd ahead of Geelong. Its only multi-spot movers were Collingwood (up 2 into 7th) and GWS (down 3 into 11th).

That left both Systems with a Top 3 of Fremantle, Hawthorn, and Geelong.

MoSHBODS RATINGS

Overall, MoSHBODS now has only 10 teams rated as above average with the Power, Blues and Giants just falling below the cutoff.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Lions, Swans, and Cats, while on defence it has a Top 3 of Dockers, Hawks, and Crows. Eleven teams are rated as above average on offence but only eight on defence.

Offensive ratings currently span a range of 1.54 standard deviations (up) and defensive ratings a range of 1.36 standard deviations (up). The standard deviation of offensive ratings across all teams is 0.45 and that for defensive ratings 0.35. Teams therefore continue to be more differentiated by their offensive abilities than their defensive abilities.

The correlation between the teams’ MoSHBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.74, which is up on last week.

We can put the MoSHBODS Ratings into an historical context by looking at the offensive and defensive ratings that teams in other seasons had after Round 20 (recognising that this will have meant different numbers of games per team in different years)

We see that the Dockers, Hawthorn, and Geelong (just) are now the only team rated above the median for Grand Finalists at this point of the season in the context of history, and that the Dockers have finally moved into the top decile.

We can also look at the trajectory that each team has taken so far in 2026 to arrive at their current rating.

MARS RATINGS

MARS still has 11 teams rated better-than-average, with the Blues next lowest below the cutoff and probably two or three more good results away from lifting above it.

As noted earlier, it now has the same Top 3 as MoSHBODS of Fremantle, Hawthorn, and Geelong.

The gap from 1st to 2nd is now 6.9 Rating Points (down), from 1st to 4th is 10.1 Rating Points (down), and from 1st to 10th is 36 Rating Points (up).

Across all 18 teams, the Ratings span 94.3 Rating Points (up), the mean is 1,000 Rating Points, and the standard deviation is 28.1 Rating Points (up).

COMPARISON OF MOSHBODS AND MARS

The correlation between MoSHBODS’ Combined Ratings and MARS’ Ratings stands at +0.989 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 0.026 times its MARS Rating less 26.

Looking firstly at the comparison between the ordering of the teams on MoSHBODS and MARS compared to their ordering on the competition ladder we see that the teams with the largest discrepancies are:

HIGHER ON THE LADDER THAN ON THE TEAM RATING SYSTEMS

  • None

HIGHER ON THE TEAM RATING SYSTEMS THAN ON THE LADDER

  • Geelong

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of 13 teams now, and differ by as much as three spots on only one team, Port Adelaide, who MARS still have 14th and MoSHBODS have 11th.

Overall, the rank correlation between the two Systems is +0.983.