2026 - Round 21 : Over Confident?

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This week we again have five games expected to be decided by about two goals or less, one by about four goals, two by about five to five-and-a-half goals, and one by about seven-and-a-half goals.

Only three games have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 22.2 points per game, and six have an away team favourite with an expected victory margin of just 14.3 points per game. Across all nine games, the average expected margin is 16.9 points per game, which is about 7 points lower than last week’s average.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Home Sweet Home has six contrarian tips this week, Consult the Ladder and MoSHBODS_Marg have two, while the RSMP twins, ENS_Linear, and MARS_Marg have one each. The majority of these tips are for the Eagles defeating the Tigers, but Port Adelaide also has three votes in taking on GWS.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there is a double-digit forecast range in all but one game again this week, most notably 21 points in the Dons v Crows game, 19 points in the Hawks v Roos game, and 14 points in the Blues v Lions clash.

MoSHBODS_Marg is Extreme Predictor in five games this week, and Bookie_9 and MARS_Marg in four each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, there are five games with a double-digit forecast rang, most notably 13% points in the Tigers v Eagles game.

MoSHBODS_Prob and MARS_Prob are the Extreme Predictors in six games each this week, and Bookie_RE in four.

WAGERS

This week there are seven head-to-head wagers totalling just under 21% of the original Head-to-Head Fund (including a whopping 10% bet on the Hawks at $1.16), and seven line wagers totalling just under 16% of the original Line Fund. The only veto was on a West Coast line bet.

Shenanigans abounded in relation to the following:

  • the line bet on Geelong where we wanted 3% at $1.95 -1.5 but had to settle for 1.8% at those values and another 1.1% at $1.89 -0.5.

  • the line bet on Hawthorn where we wanted 6.6% at $1.90 -34.5 but had to settle for 3.8% at those values and another 2.5% at $1.85 -34.5

  • the head-to-head bet on Port Adelaide where we wanted 3.3% at $1.95 but had to settle for 1.6% at those values and a further 1.6% at $1.91

  • the line bet on Port Adelaide where we wanted 3.5% at $1.90 +1.5 but had to settle for 1.5% at those values and another 1.5% at $1.91 -0.5

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The shenanigans have made for an interesting Ready Reckoner.

So, best case is an increase in the price of the Combined Portfolio by just over 12c, worst case a decrease by just over 15c.

To finish, here are MoSHBODS’ and MARS’ opinions about likely team scoring, margins and probabilities.

Commentary about the MoSHBODS’ Totals forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.