MoSHBODS’ average total this week is, remarkably, just over the bookmakers’, and the game-by-game absolute differences range from 0 to 7.1 points. The average absolute difference between MoSHBODS’ and the TAB’s expected margins is 1.4 points per game, and between MoSHBODS’ and Sportsbet’s expected margins is 1.6 points per game.

MoSHBODS is forecasting higher totals than both bookmakers in seven games, and a lower total than bookmakers in one game.

This week not even the bookmakers agree with each other on the highest scoring game, and MoSHBODS differs from both bookmakers in all four categories.

Highest Scoring Game

MoSHBODS: St Kilda v Sydney
TAB: Carlton v Brisbane Lions
Sportsbet: Gold Coast v Melbourne

Lowest Scoring Game

MoSHBODS: Essendon v Adelaide
Bookmakers: Fremantle v Western Bulldogs

Highest Scoring Team

MoSHBODS: Hawthorn
Bookmakers: Adelaide

Lowest Scoring Team

MoSHBODS: North Melbourne
Bookmakers: Essendon

WAGERS

MoSHBODS fancied eight wagers again this week, including seven overs wagers, but two of them were vetoed by the rain rule. Its sole interest in an unders wager was precluded by the TGTBT rule.

The five final wagers total just under 5% of the original Overs/Unders Fund.

The estimated overlays for the wagers range from about 2 to 5 points.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw MoSHBODS take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for all four categories, which was the first time it had done that since Round 10, and only the third time this season. That allowed it to take the season-long lead on Game Margins away from Sportsbet but kept the TAB as the leader on the three other metrics.

The leads in each race are now as follows:

Game Margins: MoSHBODS 8 points ahead of the TAB and Sportsbet
Home Team Scores: TAB 8 points ahead of Sportsbet and 29 points ahead of MoSHBODS
Away Team Scores: Sportsbet 9 points ahead of the TAB, and 103 points ahead of MoSHBODS
Game Totals: Sportsbet 5 points ahead of the TAB, and 222 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were four bets last weekend, a winning and a losing unders bet with Sportsbet, a winning overs bet with the TAB, and a winning unders bet with the TAB.

That left MoSHBODS at 19 and 15 against the TAB and 10 and 8 against Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSHBODS was on the right side of the TAB and Sportsbet in 5 of the 9 games, taking it to 85 from 171 (50%) for the season against the TAB, and 80 from 171 (47%) for the season against Sportsbet.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.