The now-usual seven games again this week, with expected victory margins ranging from 5 to 56 points, comprising three games with expected margins under 3 goals, three more in the roughly 4 to 6 goal range, and then that expected 9 to 10 goal blowout.
What do the models think?
Read MoreMoSSBODS left its Top 6 and Bottom 7 teams unchanged this week, while MoSHBODS swapped the Pies and the Cats at positions 2 and 3, lifted the Lions into 4, and moved eight other teams from lower down the ordering by a single spot.
At the end of it all, the two Systems share a Top 4 of Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, Geelong, and Brisbane Lions.
Read MoreOnly four of the seven early-week favourites were successful this weekend, and, with only mild contrarianism once more the climate, registered scores were mostly around that number, the exceptions being Consult the Ladder and MoSSBODS_Marg’s threes, and MoSHPlay_Marg’s five.
That five saw MoSHPlay_Marg reestablish a three tip lead over Bookie Knows Bestand a five tip lead over ENS_Linear.
MoSHPlay_Marg now sits on 94.5 from 127 (74%).
The all-Tipster score came in at 3.9 from 7, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 84.6 from 127 (67%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at the Dogs by 71 points, its highest forecast margin of the season.
MoSHPlay finishes at the Swans by half an angstrom.
MoSHPlay is locking in Dockers by 34 points and now has preliminary thoughts about the remainder of the round, which appear below.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts about the Thursday night game are Dockers by 34 points.
The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is 2.3 points per game, with the maximum difference in one game just over 6 points and the next highest just under 4 points. Their all-game averages match (MoSSBODS) or are a couple of points less than (MoSHBODS) the bookmakers’.
Read MoreSeven games again this week, all of them with a home team favourite. Three are expected to be won by less than three goals, three by four to five goals, and one by eight goals.
To the models.
Read MoreMoSSBODS left its Top 7 teams unchanged this week, while MoSHBODS fiddled a bit but moved no team by more than a single spot.
At the end of it all, MoSSBODS’ Top 3 is Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, and then Geelong, while MoSHBODS’ is Western Bulldogs, Geelong, and then Collingwood.
Read MoreSIx of the seven early-week favourites got up this weekend, and, with only mild contrarianism, registered scores were mostly around that number, the big exception being Home Sweet Home who scored only two.
MoSHPlay_Marg registered only five, however, which allowed Bookie Knows Best to close its lead to just two tips on the Head-to-Head Predictor Leaderboard. ENS_Linear sits in 3rd, two tips further back.
MoSHPlay_Marg now sits on 89.5 from 120 (75%).
The all-Tipster score came in at 5 from 7, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 80.7 from 120 (67%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay’s got around to looking at the new lists for the Sunday game and has made a few adjustments, pending the final teams.
MoSHPlay has ended at Lions by 21 points.
MoSHPlay’s sticking with Dogs by 33 points tonight and now has preliminary views on the remaining games in the round.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tomorrow’s game is Dogs by 33 points.
The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is 2.5 points per game, with the difference in one game just under 6 points and in two more over 3 points. Their all-game averages differ by only a point, however, and are 1 or 2 points higher than the bookmakers’.
Read MoreOnly seven games this week, all of them expected to be won by about 5 goals or less, and three of them by 3 goals or less.
Read MoreBoth Systems lowered the Ratings of the Top 3 teams this week, but they remain, in order and for both, the Dogs, Pies, and Cats.
In total, MoSSBODS moved only five teams this week and MoSHBODS only three, with Carlton (up 2 to 7th) and Adelaide (down 3 to 9th) the only multi-spot movers on MoSSBODS. No team moved by more than a single spot on MoSHBODS.
Read MoreSIx of the eight early-week favourites got up this weekend, and, with minimal contrarianism once again, registered scores were mostly that number with the exceptions being Home Sweet Home and Consult the Ladder who both scored only four.
That left MoSHPlay still three tips clear of the field and now on 84.5 from 113 (75%).
The all-Tipster score came in at 5.6 from 8, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 75.7 from 113 (67%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tomorrow’s game is Pies by 24 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 18 points.
MoSHPlay now has some preliminary views about the Friday, Saturday, and Sunday games.
MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 27 points.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tonight’s game is Dogs by 26 points.
The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is just under 3 points per game, with differences in two games as high as 5 points. Their all-game averages differ by only a point, however, and are, unusually, 5 or 6 points higher than the bookmakers’.
At least part of the reason for that difference is the rain that is expected to affect a number of games.
Read MoreThis week we have eight-ninths of a full round and it comprises six games that are expected to be won by the home team and by less than three goals, and two games that are expected to be won by the away team and by less than four goals.
Let’s see what the models make of the eight games.
Read MoreBoth Systems moved only three teams by multiple spots this week, and both left the Top 3 untouched, meaning that there’s still unanimity that they are, in order, the Dogs, Pies, and Cats. On both Systems, the Pies and the Cats drew a little nearer to the Dogs, although the gap between the Pies and the Dogs on MoSHBODS is far smaller than on MoSSBODS.
The big movers on MoSSBODS were Adelaide (up 4 into 6th), Sydney (down 3 into 11th), and Carlton (down 2 into 9th). On MoSHBODS they were Adelaide (up 4 into 4th), Fremantle (up 2 into 8th), and Hawthorn (down 2 into 7th),
Read MoreFive of the seven early-week favourites got up this week, and, with minimal contrarianism, this was the score registered by all but Home Sweet Home (three) and MoSSBODS_Marg (four).
That left MoSHPlay still three tips clear of the field and now on 78.5 from 105 (75%).
The all-Tipster score came in at 4.7 from 7, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 70.2 from 105 (67%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay is sticking with Lions by 37 points as its final forecast and also now has preliminary thought about the remaining games in the round.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary thought about tomorrow’s game is Lions by 37 points.
The MoS twins, as is becoming the norm, have a few sizeable differences of opinion this week, with five of the seven games seeing them separated by 2 points or more in their Total forecasts, and in three of those by 4 points or more. Overall, the difference in their average Total is 2 points per game and their differences to the bookmakers’ overall averages range from 3 to 5 points per game.
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