This week, MoSHBODS is a little closer to the bookmakers’ views in a few games - and even expects a higher score than them in one game - but still has an all-game expected Total that is about a goal less than both the TAB and Sportsbet.
Read MoreYet another feast of nine more games this week, six of which are expected to be decided by less than 20 points, two more by between 26 and 31 points, and the last one of which is expected to be decided by just over 7 goals. Combined, the average expected margin per game is 21.2 points per game.
There are five home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 20.3 points per game, and four away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 22.3 points per game.
Here’s hoping we have a far more competitive round than last week.
Read MoreMoSHBODS changed the ranking of 11 teams this week, with some big changes towards the top of the ordering, which saw Sydney rise to 1st, Hawthorn slip to 2nd, and Brisbane Lions rise to 3rd. In other big moves, Geelong now sits in 5th (down 3), and Collingwood in 6th (up 3).
MARS moved 14 teams, but only four by more than a single spot, which left it with an identical Top 3 to MoSHBODS.
Read MoreIt was a good week for favourites and, by extension, a good week for contrarian-avoiding Head-to-Head Tipsters, which saw all but two Tipsters register eight from nine, the exceptions being MARS_Marg’s seven, and Home Sweet Home’s five.
That left MARS_Marg still in 1st place and now on 49 from 53 (79%) but only one tip clear of Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear, with MoSHPlay_Marg remaining one further back with the RSMP twins on 47 from 63 (76%).
The all-Tipster average score came in at 7.6 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 45.8 from 63 (74%).
It’s been a fairly easy year to tip winners.
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Melbourne by 37 points and has fresh but still preliminary views about the Sunday games.
MoSHPlay finishes at the Swans by 7 points and has preliminary views on the remaining games in the round.
MoSHPlay currently has tomorrow night’s game as the Swans by 7 points
A routine check of the MoSHBODS spreadsheets detected that they have been, since Round 5, not considering the ninth game of the round for wagers.
That meant that - fortuitously as it happens - Investors missed wagers on Port Adelaide both head-to-head and line in Round 5, but also that they’ve missed head-to-head and line wagers on GWS in the current round.
I’ve just remedied that so we now have:
2.8% @ $1.42 GWS H2H
2.2% @ $1.90 GWS -16.5
MoSHBODS - as stubborn as always - again feels that the bookmakers have gone too high with their Totals this week (in all but one game), and has an all-game expected Total of 176 points per game compared to TAB’s and Sportbet’s 184 and 183.
(Some time soon it’ll be worth investigating the speed at which MoSHBODS is adjusting its scoring expectations to reflect recent games. The average score per game so far this season is 179.4 points per game, so it’s not a slam dunk that MoSHBODS is being way too slow to adapt.
Of interest is that the bookmakers have seven teams breaking 100 points this weekend, while MoSHBODS has five.)
Read MoreAnother nine more games this week, four of which are expected to be decided by less than 20 points, two more by between 23 and 27 points, and the last three of which are expected to be decided by between 33 and 39 points. Combined, the average expected margin per game is 24.5 points per game.
There are five home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 23.9 points per game, and four away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 25.3 points per game.
Read MoreMoSHBODS changed the ranking of only five teams this week, and only two by more than a single spot: Geelong up 2 spots into 2nd, and Western Bulldogs down 4 spots into 6th.
MARS moved 10 teams, including five by more than a single spot: Sydney up 2 into 1st, Geelong up 4 into 2nd, Hawthorn down 2 into 3rd, Western Bulldogs down 3 into 5th, and North Melbourne up 2 into 13th.
At the end of it all, MoSHBODS’ Top 3 is Swans, Cats, and Hawks, and MARS’ is Hawks, Cats, and Swans.
Read MoreWhilst 6,7 might be a dying meme, it was all 7,8 for the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, which left MARS_Marg still in 1st place and now on 43 from 54 (80%) and still two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear, with MoSHPlay_Marg falling one further back to join the RSMP twins on 40 from 54 (74%).
The all-Tipster average score came in at 7.6 from 9, taking the season-long figure to a lofty 39.1 from 54 (72%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Brisbane Lions by 14 points (and currently has Fremantle by 42 points)
MoSHPlay, with the late change, moves to Swans by 22 points, It also has new, but still preliminary views on the Sunday games.
MoSHPlay ends at Pies by 10 points and has preliminary views about the remaining games in the round.
MoSHPlay currently has tomorrow night’s game as the Pies by 11 points
MoSHBODS again feels that the bookmakers have gone too high with their Totals in every game this week, and has an all-game expected Total of 175 points per game compared to TAB’s and Sportbet’s 182.
Read MoreNine more games this week, four of which are expected to be decided by less than 20 points, two more by between 20 and 24 points, and the last three of which are expected to be decided by between 40 and 50 points. Combined, the average expected margin per game is 25.6 points per game.
There are five home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 26.3 points per game, and four away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 24.2 points per game.
Read MoreMoSHBODS changed the ranking of only four teams this week, and only one by more than a single spot: GWS up 2 into 10th.
MARS moved 10 teams, including five by more than a single spot: Hawks up 3 into 1st, Swans up 2 into 3rd, Lions down 2 into 4th, and Suns down 2 into 5th, and Dees down 2 into 12th.
At the end of it all, MoSHBODS’ and MARS’ Top 3s are Hawks, Dogs, and Swans.
Read MoreWith a little more contrarianism this week, final scores ranged from Control the Ladder’s five from nine to Bookie Knows Best’s and ENS_Linear’s eight from nine, all of which left MARS_Marg still in 1st place and now on 35 from 45 (78%) but only two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best, ENS_Linear, and MoSHPlay_Marg.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 6.8 from 9, taking the season figure to 31.6 from 45 (71%)..
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Hawks by 2 goals.
MoSHPlay has some updates to its preliminary views of the Sunday games.
MoSHPlay finishes at Dockers by 8 points for tonight’s game.
MoSHPlay is staying with the Crows by 28 points and now has preliminary views on the remaining games in the round.
MoSHPlay currently has tomorrow night’s game as the Crows by 28 points
MoSHBODS is even further below the bookmakers this week with its all-game expected Total of 176 points per game contrasting with the 184 and 185 points per game views of the TAB and Sportsbet.
In fact, MoSHBODS’ expected Total for every game is lower than that of both bookmakers for the same game.
Read MoreWe are back to a full nine games this week, four of which are expected to be decided by less than two goals, four more of which are expected to be decided by between four and six goals, and the last of which is expected to be decided by about seven-and-a-half goals. Combined, the average expected margin per game is just under 22 points per game.
There are five home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 23.5 points per game, and four away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 19.5 points per game.
Read MoreMoSHBODS changed the ranking of 13 teams this week, but only two by more than a single spot: Sydney up 6 into 3rd, and Gold Coast down 3 into 6th.
MARS also moved 13 teams, four by more than a single spot: Lions up 2 into 2nd, Swans up 3 into 5th, Crows down 2 into 8th, and Port up2 into 13th.
At the end of it all, MoSHBODS’ Top 3 is Dogs, Hawks, and Swans, and MARS’ Top 3 is Dogs, Lions, and Suns.
Read MoreIt was five from eights for all the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week except Consult The Ladder and MARS_Marg who recorded sixes, which meant that MARS_Marg extended its lead over MoSHPlay_Marg to three tips and left a pack of five more Tipsters one tip further back in joint third.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 5.2 from 8, taking the season figure to 24.8 from 36 (69%).
Read MoreMAFL is a website for ...
(For those not wanting to use PayPal, my email address below is now also a PayID)
Click on the envelope
Copyright © 2006-2025, Tony Corke. All rights reserved.
