2026 - Round 6 : Overs/Unders

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MoSHBODS again feels that the bookmakers have gone too high with their Totals in every game this week, and has an all-game expected Total of 175 points per game compared to TAB’s and Sportbet’s 182.

There’s complete agreement only this week about the likely lowest scoring game.

Highest Scoring Game

  • MoSHBODS: Geelong v Western Bulldogs

  • Bookmakers: Gold Coast v Essendon

Lowest Scoring Game

  • All: Carlton v Collingwood

Highest Scoring Team

  • MoSHBODS: Fremantle

  • Bookmakers: Gold Coast

Lowest Scoring Team

  • All: West Coast (TAB also Port Adelaide)

  • Bookmakers: Gold Coast

WAGERS

MoSHBODS would have liked to place eight wagers this week, but five were ruled out by the TGTBT rule.

That left if with three wagers, all unders, all priced at $1.90 and for 1.3% or 1.4% of the Over/Under Fund, with estimated overlays of 3 to 4 points.

The table at right shows what the Overs/Unders Fund would currently be worth had we enforced only some or all of the veto rules. Last week would be been a good week for ignoring those vetoes but their net contribution season-long remains positive.

Roughly speaking, the TGTBT veto prevents MoSHBODS from making unders bets where the estimated overlay is 6 points or more and from making overs bets where the estimated overlay is 15 points or more.

In the table at right we see MoSHBODS win rate for different overlay ranges.

Bearing in mind that, at $1.90, profitability from level-staking comes with win rates of 53% or higher, we can see that, in hindsight, level-staking all of the identified unders bets with the TAB would have proven profitable - more specifically, the ROI would have been about 4.5%.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw MoSHBODS take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for Away Team Scores and Game Totals, Sportsbet take it for Home Team Scores, and the TAB and Sportsbet share it for Game Margins. Sportsbet retained season-long leadership on Away Team Scores and Total Scores, and took joint-leadership on Home Team Scores with the TAB as MoSHBODS surrendered it. The TAB also took the lead on Game Margins away from MoSHBODS.

The leads in each race are as follows:

  • Game Margins: TAB 1 point ahead of Sportsbet and 9 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Home Team Scores: TAB and Sportsbet 19 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Away Team Scores: Sportsbet 2 points ahead of the TAB, and 9 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Game Totals: Sportsbet 6 points ahead of the TAB, and 43 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were no bets last weekend, which left MoSHBODS at 3 and 3 against the TAB and at 0 and 1 with Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSHBODS was on the right side of the TAB and Sportsbet in 6 of the 9 games last week. It is now 25 from 45 (56%) against the TAB, and 23 from 45 (51%) against Sportsbet.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.