2026 - Round 6 : Virtually Of One Mind

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Nine more games this week, four of which are expected to be decided by less than 20 points, two more by between 20 and 24 points, and the last three of which are expected to be decided by between 40 and 50 points. Combined, the average expected margin per game is 25.6 points per game.

There are five home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 26.3 points per game, and four away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 24.2 points per game.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Altogether there are just five contrarian tips this week, three of them from Home Sweet Home, and one each from Consult The Ladder and MoSHBODS_Marg.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are double-digit forecast ranges in five games this week, most notably 20 points in the Cats v Dogs clash, and 18 points in the Eagles v Dockers clash.

Bookie_3 and MARS_Marg are Extreme Predictors in five games each this week.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, only one of the nine games has a double-digit percentage point forecast range: 22% points in the Cats v Dogs game, due entirely to MoSHBODS_Prob.

MARS_Prob is the Extreme Predictor in six games this week, and Bookie_LPSO in five.

WAGERS

I wrote a few weeks back about worrying if a model might reach the point where its views almost completely match those of the bookmakers’ each week, resulting in insufficient value being identified in the markets to make wagering possible.

This week we’ve gone perilously close to that situation with the huge exception of the Cats v Dogs game where the estimated edge for the Dogs on head-to-head wagering is so large that it’s triggered the Too Good To Be True vetoing rule, leaving Investors with a solitary, large line bet on the Dogs. That wager, after shenanigans, is for just under 7% of the original Line Fund, 3.1% +10.5 at $2, and 3.8% +10.5 at $1.90.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

In lieu of a Ready Reckoner this week we’ll do the necessary calculations manually.

  • Western Bulldogs win, draw, or lose by 10 points or less: 65% x (3.1% x 1 + 3.8% x 0.9) = +4.2c

  • Otherwise: -65% x 6.9% = -4.5c

To finish, here are MoSHBODS’ and MARS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about the MoSHBODS’ Totals forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.