2026 - Team Ratings After Round 5

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MoSHBODS changed the ranking of only four teams this week, and only one by more than a single spot: GWS up 2 into 10th.

MARS moved 10 teams, including five by more than a single spot: Hawks up 3 into 1st, Swans up 2 into 3rd, Lions down 2 into 4th, and Suns down 2 into 5th, and Dees down 2 into 12th.

At the end of it all, MoSHBODS’ and MARS’ Top 3s are Hawks, Dogs, and Swans.

MoSHBODS RATINGS

Overall, MoSHBODS again has just nine teams rated as above average.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSHBODS still with a Top 3 of Dogs, Hawks, and Lions, while on defence it has a Top 3 of Dockers, Pies, and Hawks. Eleven teams are rated as above average on offence and only eight on defence.

Offensive ratings currently span a range of 1.37 standard deviations (down) and defensive ratings a range of 1.21 standard deviations (up). The standard deviation of offensive ratings across all teams is 0.38 and that for defensive ratings 0.35. Teams therefore continue to be more differentiated by their offensive abilities than their defensive abilities, but the distinction is getting smaller.

The correlation between the teams’ MoSHBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.73, which is lower than last week.

We can put the MoSHBODS Ratings into an historical context by looking at the offensive and defensive ratings that teams in other seasons had after Round 5 (recognising that this will have meant different numbers of games per team in different years)

We see that both the Dogs and the Hawks are still rated quite highly at this point of the season in the context of history

MARS RATINGS

MARS still has 10 teams rated better-than-average, after which there is a large gap to St Kilda at 993.8.

The gap from 1st to 2nd is 1.4 Rating Points (down), from 1st to 4th is 4.1 Rating Points (down), and from 1st to 10th is 24.2 Rating Points (down).

Across all 18 teams, the Ratings span 70 Rating Points (down), the mean is 1,000 Rating Points, and the standard deviation is 21.9 Rating Points (up).

COMPARISON OF MOSHBODS AND MARS

The correlation between MoSHBODS’ Combined Ratings and MARS’ Ratings stands at +0.99 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 0.031 times its MARS Rating less 31.

Looking firstly at the comparison between the ordering of the teams on MoSHBODS and MARS compared to their ordering on the competition ladder we see that the teams with the largest discrepancies are:

HIGHER ON THE LADDER THAN ON THE TEAM RATING SYSTEMS

  • North Melbourne

HIGHER ON THE TEAM RATING SYSTEMS THAN ON THE LADDER

  • None

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of six teams now, and differ by no more than two spots about the ranking of just one team.

They disagree most about the ranking of Fremantle, who MARS have 7th and MoSHBODS 4th.

Overall, the rank correlation between the two Systems is +0.973