2026 - Round 5 : Whole Nine Games

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We are back to a full nine games this week, four of which are expected to be decided by less than two goals, four more of which are expected to be decided by between four and six goals, and the last of which is expected to be decided by about seven-and-a-half goals. Combined, the average expected margin per game is just under 22 points per game.

There are five home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 23.5 points per game, and four away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 19.5 points per game.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Home Sweet Home and Consult the Ladder have made their usual strong contributions to contrarian head-to-head tipping this week, but there are also contributions by MARS_Marg (2 games), the RSMP twins (1 game each) and MpSHBODS_Marg (1 game).

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are double-digit forecast ranges in all but one game, most notably 19 points in the Cats v Eagles clash.

Bookie_3 is Extreme Predictor in five games this week, and MARS_Marg in four games.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, only three of the nine games have a double-digit percentage point forecast range, including 19% points in the Power v Saints game.

MARS_Prob is the Extreme Predictor in seven games this week, with Bookie_RE Extreme in five games, and Bookie_LPSO in four.

WAGERS

It’s another fairly quiet week for Investors, with all three of the head-to-head and all three of the line wagers on underdogs.

The three head-to-head wagers represent 1.5% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and the three line wagers represent 3.5% of the original Line Fund.

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The possible wins and losses in each game in terms of the Combined Portfolio appear below.

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A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just over 3.5c, while a worst case set would snip just over 2.5c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSHBODS’ and MARS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about the MoSHBODS’ Totals forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.