2026 - Team Ratings After Round 4

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MoSHBODS changed the ranking of 13 teams this week, but only two by more than a single spot: Sydney up 6 into 3rd, and Gold Coast down 3 into 6th.

MARS also moved 13 teams, four by more than a single spot: Lions up 2 into 2nd, Swans up 3 into 5th, Crows down 2 into 8th, and Port up2 into 13th.

At the end of it all, MoSHBODS’ Top 3 is Dogs, Hawks, and Swans, and MARS’ Top 3 is Dogs, Lions, and Suns.

MoSHBODS RATINGS

Overall, MoSHBODS now has 10 teams rated as above average.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSHBODS now with a Top 3 of Dogs, Hawks, and Lions, while on defence it has a Top 3 of Crows, Dockers, and Swans. Eleven teams are rated as above average on offence and only eight on defence.

Offensive ratings currently span a range of 1.43 standard deviations (up) and defensive ratings a range of 1.02 standard deviations (up). The standard deviation of offensive ratings across all teams is 0.40 and that for defensive ratings 0.32. Teams therefore continue to be more differentiated by their offensive abilities than their defensive abilities,

The correlation between the teams’ MoSHBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.81, which is a little higher than last week.

We can put the MoSHBODS Ratings into an historical context by looking at the offensive and defensive ratings that teams in other seasons had after Round 4 (recognising that this will have meant different numbers of games per team in different years)

We see that both the Dogs and the Hawks are rated quite highly at this point of the season in the context of history

MARS RATINGS

MARS now only has 10 teams rated better-than-average, after which there is GWS at 998.8, and then a large gap to St Kilda at 991.2.

The gap from 1st to 2nd is 8.2 Rating Points (up), from 1st to 4th is 8.5 Rating Points (down), and from 1st to 10th is 30 Rating Points (down).

Across all 18 teams, the Ratings span 72.2 Rating Points (up), the mean is 1,000 Rating Points, and the standard deviation is 21.6 Rating Points (up).

COMPARISON OF MOSHBODS AND MARS

The correlation between MoSHBODS’ Combined Ratings and MARS’ Ratings stands at +0.98 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 0.031 times its MARS Rating less 31.

Looking firstly at the comparison between the ordering of the teams on MoSHBODS and MARS compared to their ordering on the competition ladder (using match ratios) we see that the teams with the largest discrepancies are:

HIGHER ON THE LADDER THAN ON THE TEAM RATING SYSTEMS

  • North Melbourne

  • Port Adelaide

  • West Coast

HIGHER ON THE TEAM RATING SYSTEMS THAN ON THE LADDER

  • Brisbane Lions

  • Geelong

  • Adelaide

  • GWS

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of five teams now, and differ by no more than two spots about the ranking of nine more teams.

They disagree most about the ranking of Gold Coast, who MARS have 3rd and MoSHBODS 7th.

Overall, the rank correlation between the two Systems is +0.94