2026 - Round 5 : Overs/Unders
/MoSHBODS is even further below the bookmakers this week with its all-game expected Total of 176 points per game contrasting with the 184 and 185 points per game views of the TAB and Sportsbet.
In fact, MoSHBODS’ expected Total for every game is lower than that of both bookmakers for the same game.
There’s agreement this week about everything except the highest scoring game.
Highest Scoring Game
MoSHBODS: Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs
Bookmakers: Sydney v Gold Coast
Lowest Scoring Game
All: Adelaide v Carlton
Highest Scoring Team
All: Geelong
Lowest Scoring Team
All: Carlton (the TAB has West Coast tied)
WAGERS
MoSHBODS would have liked to place seven wagers this week, but all seven were ruled out by the TGTBT rule.
That left if with no wagers at all.
The table at right shows what the Overs/Unders Fund would currently be worth had we enforced only some or all of the veto rules.
Ignoring the rain rule for the two game in which it has so far applied would have snipped about 0.2c off the value of the Fund, but ignoring the TGTBT rule in the games where it has applied would have hacked almost 8c off the value of the Fund.
PREVIOUS WEEK
Last week saw MoSHBODS take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for all four metrics, which allowed it to grab season-long honours on Game Margins and Home Team Scores from the TAB and Sportsbet. Sportsbet did relatively well enough on Game Totals to take season-long honours for that away from the TAB.
The leads in each race are as follows:
Game Margins: MoSHBODS 3 poins ahead of the TAB and 4 points ahead of Sportsbet
Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 16 points ahead of the TAB and 18 points ahead of Sportsbet
Away Team Scores: Sportsbet 2 points ahead of the TAB, and 37 points ahead of MoSHBODS
Game Totals: Sportsbet 3 points ahead of the TAB, and 61 points ahead of MoSHBODS
Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance
There was only one bet last weekend, which was an unsuccessful unders wager with Sportsbet. That left MoSHBODS at 3 and 3 against the TAB and at 0 and 1 with Sportsbet.
Overall, MoSHBODS was on the right side of the TAB in 4 of the 8 games and of Sportsbet in 3 of the 8 games last week. It is now 19 from 36 (53%) against the TAB, and 17 from 36 (47%) against Sportsbet.
The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.
