2026 - Round 8 : Overs/Unders

/
“Tale as old as time
True as it can be
Never will be friends
’cos nobody bends
Unexpectedly

Quite a different prior
Formed empirically
Both willing to bet
(If I can get set)
MoSHBODS and bookie”
— MoS

This week, MoSHBODS is a little closer to the bookmakers’ views in a few games - and even expects a higher score than them in one game - but still has an all-game expected Total that is about a goal less than both the TAB and Sportsbet.

There’s complete agreement this week about the likely highest and lowest scoring teams:

Highest Scoring Game

  • MoSHBODS: Essendon v Brisbane Lions

  • Bookmakers: Geelong v North Melbourne

Lowest Scoring Game

  • MoSHBODS: Collingwood v Hawthorn

  • Bookmakers: Adelaide v Port Adelaide

Highest Scoring Team

  • All: Brisbane Lions

Lowest Scoring Team

  • All: Essendon

WAGERS

MoSHBODS would have liked to place a wager on every game but one this week, but five were ruled out by the TGTBT rule.

That left if with three wagers, a rare but very small overs wager with an estimated 2.5 point overlay, and two unders wagers priced at $1.90 and for 2% and 1.1% of the original Over/Under Fund, with estimated overlays of 5.6 and 4 points.

The table at right shows what the Overs/Unders Fund would currently be worth had we enforced only some or all of the veto rules. For the second time last week, the TGTBT rule saved Investors a good deal of money. Without them, right now the Overs/Unders Fund would have a price just under 66c.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw the TAB take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for Away Team Scores and Sportsbet take them for Home Team Scores and Game Totals, while the TAB and Sportsbet shared them for Game Margins. That allowed Sportsbet to retain season-long leadership on Home Team Scores, Away Team Scores and Total Scores, and the TAB to retain the lead on Game Margins.

The leads in each race are now as follows:

  • Game Margins: TAB 2 pointa ahead of Sportsbet and 38 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Home Team Scores: Sportsbet 1 point ahead of TAB and 46 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Away Team Scores: Sportsbet 1 point ahead of the TAB, and 43 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Game Totals: Sportsbet 7 points ahead of the TAB, and 119 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were two bets last weekend, both unders and both with the TAB, only one of which was successful. That left MoSHBODS at 5 and 6 against the TAB and at 0 and 1 against Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSHBODS was on the right side of the TAB and Sportsbet in only 2 of the 9 games last week. It is now 31 from 63 (49%) against the TAB, and 29 from 63 (46%) against Sportsbet.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.