2026 - Round 8 : MoSHBODS Still Loves Dogs

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Yet another feast of nine more games this week, six of which are expected to be decided by less than 20 points, two more by between 26 and 31 points, and the last one of which is expected to be decided by just over 7 goals. Combined, the average expected margin per game is 21.2 points per game.

There are five home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 20.3 points per game, and four away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 22.3 points per game.

Here’s hoping we have a far more competitive round than last week.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Altogether there are just seven contrarian tips this week, four of them from Home Sweet Home, two from Consult The Ladder, and one from MARS_Marg.

In a year where winners have been so relatively predictable, it makes a lot of sense to side with the favourites.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are double-digit forecast ranges in four games this week, most notably 31 points in the Dogs v Dockers clash, and 24 points in the Dons v Lions game.

Bookie_3 is Extreme Predictor in seven games and MARS_Marg in four games.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, five of the nine games have a double-digit percentage point forecast range, including 31% points in the Dogs v Dockers game, and 13% in the Pies v Hawks game.

MARS_Prob is the Extreme Predictor in five games this week, and Bookie_LPSO and MoSHBODS_Prob in four.

WAGERS

Constraints have successfully prevented MoSHBODS from wagering on the Dogs in the head-to-head market this week, but have failed to do the same in the line market where Investors now see 6.6% of the original Line Fund at risk.

While I’m on the topic of wagering constraints, I did have a look at the effect they’ve had on wagering outcomes for Investors this year and found that they’ve been unequivocably positive. Ignoring all of the constraints on head-to-head wagering would have left Investors about 6c worse off for the Head-to-Head Fund, and ignoring all of the constraints on line wagering would have left Investors about 10c worse off for the Line Fund. Together, that represents about an 8c reduction in the value of the Combined Portfolio.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

A few things to note here. Firstly, because I went into the markets very early this week I faced shenanigans even in the head-to-head market for a modest wager on Richmond. More shenanigans were to be had in the line market for those Dogs bets, and I mistakenly placed the Port Adelaide head-to-head bet at $2.86 with Sportsbet before the TAB market opened at $2.90. Lastly, Collingwood +20.5 @ $1.95 works out as having a higher EV than Collingwood +21.5 @ $1.89.

After all that, below is a Ready Reckoner that shows the returns that will accrue to different possible outcomes in each game.

So, any concerns about MoSHBODS effectively becoming a mirror of the bookmakers seem to have been firmly allayed.

To finish, here are MoSHBODS’ and MARS’ opinions about likely team scoring, margins and probabilities.

Commentary about the MoSHBODS’ Totals forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.