2026 - Team Ratings After Round 7
/MoSHBODS changed the ranking of 11 teams this week, with some big changes towards the top of the ordering, which saw Sydney rise to 1st, Hawthorn slip to 2nd, and Brisbane Lions rise to 3rd. In other big moves, Geelong now sits in 5th (down 3), and Collingwood in 6th (up 3).
MARS moved 14 teams, but only four by more than a single spot, which left it with an identical Top 3 to MoSHBODS.
MoSHBODS RATINGS
Overall, MoSHBODS has 10 teams rated as above average now, with Port Adelaide, GWS, and Melbourne very close to joining that list as the stragglers have begun to record significantly negative Combined Ratings.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSHBODS now with a Top 3 of Swans, Hawks, and Lions, while on defence it has a Top 3 of Swans, Dockers, and Pies. Eleven teams are rated as above average on offence and only six now on defence. A quick look at the competition ladder shows that even the fourth-highest rated team, Hawthorn, has conceded over 84 points per game.
Offensive ratings currently span a range of 1.35 standard deviations (steady) and defensive ratings a range of 1.26 standard deviations (up). The standard deviation of offensive ratings across all teams is 0.37 and that for defensive ratings 0.38. Teams therefore continue to be more differentiated by their offensive abilities than their defensive abilities, but the distinction continues to shrink.
The correlation between the teams’ MoSHBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.77, which is higher than last week.
We can put the MoSHBODS Ratings into an historical context by looking at the offensive and defensive ratings that teams in other seasons had after Round 7 (recognising that this will have meant different numbers of games per team in different years)
We see that both the Swans and the Hawks are rated quite highly at this point of the season in the context of history
We can also look at the trajectory that each team has taken so far in 2026 to arrive at their current rating.
MARS RATINGS
MARS now has 11 teams rated better-than-average, after which there is a gap to Melbourne on 997.7. Opportunities here have also been afforded by the shedding of Ratings Points by the lower-rated teams.
Its Top 3 match MoSHBODS’ and are Sydney, Hawthorn, and Brisbane Lions,
The gap from 1st to 2nd is 4.2 Rating Points (up), from 1st to 4th is 13 Rating Points (up), and from 1st to 10th is 30.6 Rating Points (up).
Across all 18 teams, the Ratings span 85.3 Rating Points (up), the mean is 1,000 Rating Points, and the standard deviation is 23.9 Rating Points (up).
COMPARISON OF MOSHBODS AND MARS
The correlation between MoSHBODS’ Combined Ratings and MARS’ Ratings stands at +0.993 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 0.029 times its MARS Rating less 29.3.
Looking firstly at the comparison between the ordering of the teams on MoSHBODS and MARS compared to their ordering on the competition ladder we see that the teams with the largest discrepancies are:
HIGHER ON THE LADDER THAN ON THE TEAM RATING SYSTEMS
North Melbourne and Melbourne
HIGHER ON THE TEAM RATING SYSTEMS THAN ON THE LADDER
Geelong and Adelaide
MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of six teams now, and differ by no more than two spots about the ranking of any team.
They disagree most about the ranking of Collingwood (6th on MoSHBODS and 8th on MARS) and Port Adelaide (11th on MoSHBODS and 13th on MARS)
Overall, the rank correlation between the two Systems is +0.981.
