2026 - Round 7 : MoSHBODS Loves Dogs

/

Another nine more games this week, four of which are expected to be decided by less than 20 points, two more by between 23 and 27 points, and the last three of which are expected to be decided by between 33 and 39 points. Combined, the average expected margin per game is 24.5 points per game.

There are five home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 23.9 points per game, and four away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 25.3 points per game.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Altogether there are just six contrarian tips this week, four of them from Home Sweet Home, and one each from Consult The Ladder and MARS_Marg.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are double-digit forecast ranges in all but one of the nine games this week, most notably 35 points in the Dogs v Swans clash, and 17 points in the Tigers v Dees, and Power v Cats clashes.

Bookie_3 is Extreme Predictor in six games and MoSHBODS_Marg in four games.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, only four of the nine games has a double-digit percentage point forecast range: 32% points in the Dogs v Swans game, and 15% in the Hawks v Suns game.

MoSBODS_Prob is the Extreme Predictor in five games this week, and Bookie_LPSO and MARS_Prob in four.

WAGERS

This week, MoSHBODS’ continued fervent enthusiasm for the Dogs has seen it prohibited from wagering in the line and head-to-head markets under TGTBT constraints.

What Investors do have is a lone head-to-head wager on Hawthorn for 7.5% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and three line wagers totalling just over 12% of the original Line Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Below is a Ready Reckoner that shows the returns that will accrue to different possible outcomes in each game.

So, not just one large egg in the basket this week, but several large ones.

To finish, here are MoSHBODS’ and MARS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about the MoSHBODS’ Totals forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.