2026 - Round 7 : Overs/Unders

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MoSHBODS - as stubborn as always - again feels that the bookmakers have gone too high with their Totals this week (in all but one game), and has an all-game expected Total of 176 points per game compared to TAB’s and Sportbet’s 184 and 183.

(Some time soon it’ll be worth investigating the speed at which MoSHBODS is adjusting its scoring expectations to reflect recent games. The average score per game so far this season is 179.4 points per game, so it’s not a slam dunk that MoSHBODS is being way too slow to adapt.

Of interest is that the bookmakers have seven teams breaking 100 points this weekend, while MoSHBODS has five.)

There’s complete agreement this week about the likely lowest scoring team and scoring game.

Highest Scoring Game

  • MoSHBODS: Hawthorn v Gold Coast

  • Bookmakers: Western Bulldogs v Sydney

Lowest Scoring Game

  • All: Essendon v Collingwood

Highest Scoring Team

  • MoSHBODS: St Kilda

  • Bookmakers: Melbourne

Lowest Scoring Team

  • All: Carlton

WAGERS

MoSHBODS would have liked to place a wager on every game this week, but six were ruled out by the TGTBT rule, and one by the forecast rain rule.

That left if with two wagers, both unders priced at $1.90 and for 1.7% and 0.5% of the Over/Under Fund, with estimated overlays of 5 and 3 points.

The table at right shows what the Overs/Unders Fund would currently be worth had we enforced only some or all of the veto rules. Last week, the TGTBT rule saved Investors a good deal of money.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw the TAB take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for Game Margin, Away Team Scores and Game Totals (jointly with Sportsbet) and Sportsbet take it outright for Home Team Scores. Sportsbet retained season-long leadership on Home Team Scores, Away Team Scores and Total Scores, and the TAB retained the lead on Game Margins but lost joint-leadership on Home Team Scores.

The leads in each race are as follows:

  • Game Margins: TAB 2 pointa ahead of Sportsbet and 22 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Home Team Scores: Sportsbet 0.5 points ahead of TAB and 41 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Away Team Scores: Sportsbet 1.5 points ahead of the TAB, and 18 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Game Totals: Sportsbet 6 points ahead of the TAB, and 62 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were three bets last weekend, all unders and all with the TAB, only one of which was successful. That left MoSHBODS at 3 and 5 against the TAB and at 0 and 1 with Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSHBODS was on the right side of the TAB and Sportsbet in only 4 of the 9 games last week. It is now 29 from 54 (53%) against the TAB, and 27 from 54 (50%) against Sportsbet.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.