It was five from eights for all the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week except Consult The Ladder and MARS_Marg who recorded sixes, which meant that MARS_Marg extended its lead over MoSHPlay_Marg to three tips and left a pack of five more Tipsters one tip further back in joint third.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 5.2 from 8, taking the season figure to 24.8 from 36 (69%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay‘s preliminary view for tomorrow’s game is Hawks by 13 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Suns by 11 points.
Pending the release of final teams, MoSHPlay has today’s games as Suns by 10 and Dogs by 65 points.
MoSHPlay has preliminary views about all but the final game.
MoSHPlay finishes at Lions by 9 points.
MoSHPlay has it as Lions by 8 points for now.
MoSHBODS is once again reticent to believe that higher scores will prevail and so this week has produced an all-game average expected Total that is a goal lower than the bookmakers’ averages.
In fact, MoSHBODS’ expected Total for every game but the last is lower than that of both bookmakers for the same game.
Read MoreThere are eight games this week as the League teases us with a return to our full quota next week, with all but one of them expected to be decided by less than about four goals. The eighth is, however, expected to be decided by nearer 12 goals. Combined, the average expected margin per game is just over 20 points per game.
There are four home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 25.5 points per game, skewed heavily by the Essendon game, and four away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 15.5 points per game.
Read MoreMoSHBODS changed the ranking of 10 teams this week, flipping five pairs, but leaving the Top 5 unchanged. No team moved by more than a single spot.
MARS moved eight teams and also did that by simply switching pairs of teams, and also left its Top 3 intact, swapping the Lions into 4th ahead of the Cats.
Read MoreIt was six from sevens for all the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week except Home Sweet Home (3) and Consult The Ladder (4), which meant that there was no change at all in the Leaderboard above them.
That sees MARS_Marg still two tips ahead of the field and now on on 23 from 28 (82%), and MoSHPlay_Marg on 21 from 28 (75%) in second ahead of a pack of Tipsters one tip further back on 20 from 28 (71%).
The all-Tipster average score came in at 5.4 from 7, taking the season figure to 19.6 from 28 (70%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay is staying with Cats by 15 points, and now has preliminary views on the rest of the round.
MoSHPlay has it as Cats by 15 points, which is enthusiastic without being unreasonable.
There’s been something of a coming together this week in the Totals forecasting of MoSHBODS and the bookmakers, with MoSHBODS actually coming in higher in a few games.
That said, some large differences remain, and MoSHBODS has come in about half-a-goal under the bookmakers when averaged across all games.
Read MoreThere are eight games this week as the League teases us with a return to our full quota next week, with all but one of them expected to be decided by less than about four goals. The eighth is, however, expected to be decided by nearer 12 goals. Combined, the average expected margin per game is just over 20 points per game.
There are four home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 25.5 points per game, skewed heavily by the Essendon game, and four away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 15.5 points per game.
Read MoreMoSHBODS changed the ranking of a dozen teams this week, but left its Top 3 of Dogs, Hawks, and Suns unchanged. The only team moving by more than a couple of spots was Fremantle, up five spots into 4th.
MARS moved only seven teams including swtiching the Suns into 2nd ahead of the Hawks, but leaving the Dogs in 1st.
Read MoreThe early bookmaker favourites won five of the week’s seven contests, and the very low levels of contrarian head-to-head tipping meant that only Home Sweet Home (4) and Consult The Ladder (3) scored other than five.
That left MARS_Marg still two tips ahead of the field and now on on 17 from 21 (81%), and MoSHPlay_Marg on 15 from 21 (71%) in second ahead of a chasing pack one tip further back and comprising all of the remaining Tipsters except Consult The Ladder.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 4.7 from 7, taking the season figure to 14.1 from 21 (67%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay nudges Fremantle to 2 point favourites.
MoSHPlay is sticking with its bold prediction of the Dogs by 26 points tonight, and has fresh, but still preliminary, views about the Sunday games.
MoSHPlay has locked in Hawks by 13 points, and now has preliminary views on the remaining games in the round, including that Fremantle’s margin over Melbourne will be just one point.
MoSHPlay has it as Hawks by 13 points given the teams as listed now
The entire round of Totals markets was up before 6pm on Monday, so we’ve locked in, such as it is, earlier than usual.
The bookmakers have clearly decided that the higher scoring we’ve seen in the first 14 games of the season is now a permanent feature, while MoSHBODS has allowed for some overall underlying increase, but not to the same extent.
As such MoSHBODS has lower forecasted Totals in all but one of the seven games, and by as much as 17 points in a single game.
Read MoreWe now move into a three-week period of shorter-than-maximum rounds, this week commencing with a seven-game set, all but one of which is expected by the bookmakers to be settled by less than three goals.
The outlier is the Richmond versus Gold Coast contest, which is expected to be won by closer to six goals. Combined, the average expected margin per game is 15.2 points.
There are just three home favourites with an average expected victory margin of just under 16 points per game, and four away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of just under 15 points per game.
Read MoreMoSHBODS changed the ranking of a baker’s dozen teams this week after which it had left Western Bulldogs in 1st, but moved Hawthorn into 2nd, up by three places, and left Gold Coast in 3rd.
Other big movers were Adelaide up three into 4th, Brisbane Lions down three into 5th, and Geelong down three into 7th.
MARS moved only nine teams and arrived at the same Top 3 as MoSHBODS.
Read MoreWhat started off looking like a disappointing Sunday afternoon, finished very acceptably - but more of that later.
Just six of the early week favourites were successful this round, but that wound up being the floor rather than the ceiling to the scores from the Head-to-Head Tipsters. The new MARS_Marg algorithm was again one of the outliers, this week snagging eight of the nine winners, just ahead of Home Sweet Home’s (sic) and the MoSH twins’ sevens.
Those scores left MARS_Marg now two tips ahead of the field on 12 from 14, and Home Sweet Home and MoSHPlay_Marg in joint second on 10 from 14.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 6.6 from 9, taking the season figure to 9.4 from 14 (68%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay has ended at Suns by 46 points.
MoSHPlay has ended at Port Adelaide by 5 points and now has preliminary forecasts of Melbourne by 11 and Gold Coast by 47 points in today’s other two games.
MoSHPlay is staying with Carlton by 15 points, and now has some preliminary thoughts about the remaining games in the round.
MoSHPlay has it as Carlton by 15 points, which nestles it pretty thoroughly in amongst the other forecasters.
This week is all about how much a forecaster should update his or her priors about the likely level of scoring this week based on what was seen in five games last weekend and whatever wider implications you can draw from them.
MoSHBODS is largely unmoved and is forecasting a round with an average total score of 172. The two bookmakers’ averages are a goal-and-a-half higher.
Read MoreAmongst this week’s full round of nine games we have five that are expected to be won by less than two goals, two more expected to be won by less than 20 points, and then the outliers with handicaps of 27.5 and 59.5 points. Combined, the average expected margin per game is 18.6 points.
There are six home favourites with an average expected victory margin of just under 22 points per game, and three away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of just under 15 points per game.
Read MoreMoSHBODS changed the ranking of a dozen teams this week after which it had Western Bulldogs in 1st, Brisbane Lions in 2nd, and Gold Coast in 3rd, all of them having a higher offensive than defensive rating and the Gold Coast being only one of two teams rising by more than a single place. Geelong was the big faller, dropping three places into 4th.
MARS also moved a dozen teams and arrived at a Top 3 of Dogs, Lions, and Hawks. The Cats also suffered the largest decline on this System, dropping four places into 5th.
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