2026 - Round 4 : Overs/Unders

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MoSHBODS is once again reticent to believe that higher scores will prevail and so this week has produced an all-game average expected Total that is a goal lower than the bookmakers’ averages.

In fact, MoSHBODS’ expected Total for every game but the last is lower than that of both bookmakers for the same game.

There’s agreement this week about the teams most likely to register the highest and lowest scores of the round.

Highest Scoring Game

  • MoSHBODS: Hawthorn v Geelong

  • Bookmakers: Western Bulldogs v Essendon

Lowest Scoring Game

  • MoSHBODS: Adelaide v Fremantle

  • Bookmakers: North Melbourne v Carlton

Highest Scoring Team

  • All: Western Bulldogs

Lowest Scoring Team

  • All: Essendon

WAGERS

MoSHBODS would have liked to place five wagers this week, but had four ruled out by the TGTBT rule.

That left if with a single, unders wager, the overlay for which is only 3.5 points. Interestingly, it could have been 4.5 points, but MoSHBODS preferred under 176.5 @ $1.91 over under 177.5 @ $1.85.

The table at right shows what the Overs/Unders Fund would currently be worth had we enforced only some or all of the veto rules.

Ignoring the rain rule for the two game in which it has so far applied would have snipped about 0.2c off the value of the Fund, but ignoring the TGTBT rule in the games where it has applied would have hacked over 15c off the value of the Fund.

In short, so far the constraints have been positive for the Fund.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw MoSHBODS take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for Game Margin, Home Team Scores, and Total Scores, leaving honours for Away Team Scores to be taken by Sportsbet. Those results left the TAB leading season-long on Home Team Scores and Game Totals, and Sportsbet leading on Away Team Scores and Game Margins.

The leads in each race are as follows:

  • Game Margins: Sportsbet 2 points ahead of the TAB and 11 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Home Team Scores: the TAB 3 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 4 points ahead of Sportsbet

  • Away Team Scores: Sportsbet 4 points ahead of the TAB, and 55 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Game Totals: the TAB 2 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 67 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There was only one bet last weekend, which was a successful overs wager with the TAB. That left MoSHBODS at 3 and 3 against the TAB and yet to favour Sportsbet with a wager.

Overall, MoSHBODS was on the right side of the TAB in 5 of the 8 games and of Sportsbet in 4 of the 8 games last week. It is now 15 from 28 (54%) against the TAB, and 14 from 28 (50%) against Sportsbet.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.