2026 - Round 4 : Only One Short

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There are eight games this week as the League teases us with a return to our full quota next week, with all but one of them expected to be decided by less than about four goals. The eighth is, however, expected to be decided by nearer 12 goals. Combined, the average expected margin per game is just over 20 points per game.

There are four home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 25.5 points per game, skewed heavily by the Essendon game, and four away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 15.5 points per game.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

As usual, Home Sweet Home and Consult the Ladder dominate the week’s contrarian tips, with MARS_Marg the only other Tipster making a contribution.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are double-digit forecast ranges in five of the games, most notably 30 points in the Dogs v Dons clash.

MARS_Marg is Extreme Predictors in six games this week, and Bookie_3 in four games.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, three of the eight games have a double-digit percentage point forecast range, including 12% points in the Crows v Dockers, and Roos v Blues games.

MARS_Prob is the Extreme Predictor in seven games this week, with Bookie_RE Extreme in four games.

WAGERS

Every season there’s a concern that maybe the models underpinning wagering have become so adept at modelling the sport that they nearly mirror the bookmakers, leaving only those games where they regress to the mean a bit on rank outsiders as possible wagers.

We aren’t there yet - and maybe never will be - but we do have a wek where Investors’ fates are almost entirely in the hands of a single underdog.

The entire menu of wagers includes two fairly small head-to-head wagers on the Pies and the Dons, a small line wager on the Roos, and a very large wager on the Dons receiving 70.5 points start.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

In total, Investors have 1% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and just under 7% of the original Line Fund at risk.

The possible wins and losses in each game in terms of the Combined Portfolio appear below.

(Note that this image can also be clicked on to access a larger version)

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just over 5c, while a worst case set would snip just under 5c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSHBODS’ and MARS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about the MoSHBODS’ Totals forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.