2026 - Round 2 : Overs/Unders

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The entire round of Totals markets was up before 6pm on Monday, so we’ve locked in, such as it is, earlier than usual.

The bookmakers have clearly decided that the higher scoring we’ve seen in the first 14 games of the season is now a permanent feature, while MoSHBODS has allowed for some overall underlying increase, but not to the same extent.

As such MoSHBODS has lower forecasted Totals in all but one of the seven games, and by as much as 17 points in a single game.

There is, however, a high level of agreement this week about which will be the highest- and lowest-scoring games and teams.

Highest Scoring Game

  • All: Adelaide v Western Bulldogs

Lowest Scoring Game

  • MoSHBODS: Richmond v Gold Coast

  • Bookmakers: West Coast v North Melbourne

Highest Scoring Team

  • All: Gold Coast

Lowest Scoring Team

  • All: Richmond

WAGERS

MoSHBODS again fancied a slew of unders wagers this week, but the “too good to be true” (TGTBT) maximum estimated edge of 10% on unders wagers rule - which served Investors very well last week - vetoed all but one of them.

The overlay in the lone game in play is just over 5 points. Those in the TGTBT-vetoed games range from about 7 to about 18 points.

The table at right shows what the Overs/Unders Fund would currently be worth had we enforced only some or all of the veto rules.

Ignoring the rain rule for the one game in which it has so far applied would have added about 1.7c to the value of the Fund, but ignoring the TGTBT rule in the eight games where it has applied would have snipped almost 18c off the value of the Fund. The TGTBT rule has therefore been very advantageous.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw the TAB take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for Home Team Scores and share honours for Away Team Scores and Game Totals with Sportsbet, leaving honours for Game Margins to be taken by MoSHBODS. Those results left the TAB leading season-long on Home Team Scores and Game Totals, Sportsbet leading on Away Team Scores, and MoSHBODS leading on Game Margins.

The leads in each race are as follows:

  • Game Margins: MoSHBODS 3 points ahead of the TAB and Sportsbet

  • Home Team Scores: the TAB 3 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 18 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Away Team Scores: Sportsbet 2 points ahead ofthe TAB, and 43 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Game Totals: the TAB 4 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 48 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There was only one bet last weekend, which was an unsuccessful unders wager with the TAB. That left MoSHBODS at 1 and 3 against the TAB and yet to favour Sportsbet with a wager.

Overall, MoSHBODS was on the right side of the TAB and Sportsbet in only 3 games last week.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.