2026 - Round 2 : Less Bold

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We now move into a three-week period of shorter-than-maximum rounds, this week commencing with a seven-game set, all but one of which is expected by the bookmakers to be settled by less than three goals.

The outlier is the Richmond versus Gold Coast contest, which is expected to be won by closer to six goals. Combined, the average expected margin per game is 15.2 points.

There are just three home favourites with an average expected victory margin of just under 16 points per game, and four away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of just under 15 points per game.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Home Sweet Home has three-fifths of the round’s contrarian head-to-head forecasts this week, with Consult the Ladder the only other contributor, it offering two additional underdog tips of its own in two different games.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are double-digit forecast ranges in just two of the games, most notably 20 points in the Tigers v Suns clash.

MARS_Marg and Bookie_3 are Extreme Predictors in four games each this week, with MARS being more favourable to the home team in all four games No other forecaster is Extreme in more than two games.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, only two of the seven games have double-digit percentage point forecast ranges, most notably 13% points in the Tigers v Suns game.

MARS_Prob is the Extreme Predictor in four games this week, with Bookie_LPSO and MoSHBODS_Prob Extreme in three games each.

WAGERS

This week sees a much more subdued set of wagers, with just a single head-to-head wager and three line bets.

Two other head-to-head wagers were ruled out by the “too good to be true” prohibiting rule, but Investors still have a piece of the same teams via line bets.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

In total, Investors have the one bet totalling just under 1% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and three bets totalling just under 7% of the Line Fund.

The possible wins and losses in each game in terms of the Combined Portfolio appear below.

(Note that this image can also be clicked on to access a larger version)

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just under 5c, while a worst case set would snip 5c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSHBODS’ and MARS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about the MoSHBODS’ Totals forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.