2026 - Round 3 : Overs/Unders

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There’s been something of a coming together this week in the Totals forecasting of MoSHBODS and the bookmakers, with MoSHBODS actually coming in higher in a few games.

That said, some large differences remain, and MoSHBODS has come in about half-a-goal under the bookmakers when averaged across all games.

There’s agreement this week only about the team most likely to register the lowest score of the round.

Highest Scoring Game

  • MoSHBODS: Geelong v Adelaide

  • Bookmakers: Port Adelaide v West Coast

Lowest Scoring Game

  • MoSHBODS: Collingwood v GWS

  • Bookmakers: Fremantle v Richmond (also Carlton v Melbourne for the TAB)

Highest Scoring Team

  • MoSHBODS: Fremantle

  • Bookmakers: Port Adelaide

Lowest Scoring Team

  • All: Richmond

WAGERS

MoSHBODS would have liked to place five wagers this week, but had three ruled out by the TGTBT rule and another ruled out by forecast rain.

That left if with a single, unders wager, the overlay for which is a healthy 8 points (overs wagers have a less constraining TGTBT threshold).

The table at right shows what the Overs/Unders Fund would currently be worth had we enforced only some or all of the veto rules.

Ignoring the rain rule for the one game in which it has so far applied would have added about 1.7c to the value of the Fund, but ignoring the TGTBT rule in the games where it has applied would have snipped over 21c off the value of the Fund.

(BTW, last week’s successful unders wager was mis-sized for reasons unknown. It should have been 1.4% of the Fund, not 1.8%. Enquiries are being made …)

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw the TAB take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for Home Team Scores and Away Team Scores, and share honours for Game Totals with Sportsbet, leaving honours for Game Margins to be taken by Sportsbet alone. Those results left the TAB leading season-long on Home Team Scores and Game Totals, and Sportsbet leading on Away Team Scores and Game Margins.

The leads in each race are as follows:

  • Game Margins: Sportsbet 1 point ahead of the TAB and 18 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Home Team Scores: the TAB 4 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 26 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Away Team Scores: Sportsbet 2 points ahead ofthe TAB, and 46 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Game Totals: the TAB 4 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 70 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There was only one bet last weekend, which was a successful unders wager with the TAB. That left MoSHBODS at 2 and 3 against the TAB and yet to favour Sportsbet with a wager.

Overall, MoSHBODS was on the right side of the TAB and Sportsbet in 5 of the 7 games last week. It is now 10 from 21 (48%) against both bookmakers.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.