2026 - Round 1 : Overs/Unders

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This week is all about how much a forecaster should update his or her priors about the likely level of scoring this week based on what was seen in five games last weekend and whatever wider implications you can draw from them.

MoSHBODS is largely unmoved and is forecasting a round with an average total score of 172. The two bookmakers’ averages are a goal-and-a-half higher.

There is disagreement this week about which will be the highest- and lowest-scoring games, but complete agreement about which will be the highest- and lowest-scoring teams.

Highest Scoring Game

  • MoSHBODS: Western Bulldogs v GW Sydney

  • Bookmakers: Essendon v Hawthorn

Lowest Scoring Game

  • MoSHBODS: Collingwood v Adelaide

  • Bookmakers: Carlton v Richmond

Highest Scoring Team

  • All: Gold Coast

Lowest Scoring Team

  • All: West Coast

WAGERS

MoSHBODS, unsurprisngly, fancied a slew of unders wagers this week, but the “too good to be true” (TGTBT) maximum estimated edge of 10% ruled out all but one of them.

In weeks to come I expect that MoSHBODS and the bookmakers will come closer together in terms of their expectations about the scoring in a typical game, at which point the TGTBT rule should serve as a better guide of MoSHBODS’ total thinking being unaware of some important factor.

The overlay in the lone game in play is just under 5 points. Those in the TGTBT-vetoed games range from about 7 to an astonishing 22 points.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw the TAB take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for Home Team Scores and Game Totals, and Sportsbet do the same for Away Team Scores. Honours for Game Margins were shared between the bookmakers.

The leads in each race are as follows:

  • Game Margins: the TAB and Sportsbet 3 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Home Team Scores: the TAB 0.5 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 2 points ahead of Sportsbet

  • Away Team Scores: Sportsbet 2 points ahead ofthe TAB, and 15 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Game Totals: the TAB 4 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 6 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were three bets last weekend, one successful, and two unsuccessful unders wagers with the TAB. The good news is that the TGTBT rule saved us for a losing wager on the Thursday night game. The bad news is that the “non-trivial rain is forecast” rule disuaded us from a largish overs bet in the Lions v Dogs game. Unfortunately, the rain never came, but 217 points did against an opening line of 171.5.

Overall, MoSHBODS was on the right side of the TAB and Sportsbet in 2 games last week.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.