2026 - Round 1 : Bold
/Amongst this week’s full round of nine games we have five that are expected to be won by less than two goals, two more expected to be won by less than 20 points, and then the outliers with handicaps of 27.5 and 59.5 points. Combined, the average expected margin per game is 18.6 points.
There are six home favourites with an average expected victory margin of just under 22 points per game, and three away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of just under 15 points per game.
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Home Sweet Home has three-eighths of the round’s contrarian head-to-head forecasts this week, with Consult the Ladder and the new MARS_Marg each providing two additional underdog tips.
MoSHBODS_Marg is the source of the only other underdog forecast.
Amongst the Margin Predictors there are double-digit forecast ranges in six of the games, but most notably 25 points in the Dees v Saints clash, and 23 points in the Suns v Eagles game.
MARS_Marg and Bookie_3 are Extreme Predictors in five games each this week, and MoSHBODS_Marg in three games.
Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, five of the nine games have double-digit percentage point forecast ranges, most notably 27% points in the Dees v Saints game, and 15% points in the Roos v Power game.
MARS_Prob is the Extreme Predictor in seven games this week, Bookie_LPSO in four, and Bookie_ RE and MoSHBODS_Prob in three each.
With that sort of outlying prediction record, MARS_Prob is certainly showing itself to be a worthy MoSSBODS_Prob replacement.
WAGERS
This week looked likely to be a relatively quiet one until I discovered that the formulae for the cells that determine wagers were missing for the last four games of the round. That very much changed things, as you can see in the table below.
(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)
In total, Investors have four bets totalling just under 7% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and five bets totalling just over 20% of the Line Fund.
The possible wins and losses in each game in terms of the Combined Portfolio appear below.
(Note that this image can also be clicked on to access a larger version)
A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by 14c, while a worst case set would snip almost 15c off the price.
To finish, here are MoSHBODS’ and MARS’ opinions about likely team scoring.
Commentary about the MoSHBODS’ Totals forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.
