2026 - Round 1 Results - Surprised
/What started off looking like a disappointing Sunday afternoon, finished very acceptably - but more of that later.
Just six of the early week favourites were successful this round, but that wound up being the floor rather than the ceiling to the scores from the Head-to-Head Tipsters. The new MARS_Marg algorithm was again one of the outliers, this week snagging eight of the nine winners, just ahead of Home Sweet Home’s (sic) and the MoSH twins’ sevens.
Those scores left MARS_Marg now two tips ahead of the field on 12 from 14, and Home Sweet Home and MoSHPlay_Marg in joint second on 10 from 14.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 6.6 from 9, taking the season figure to 9.4 from 14 (68%).
Margin prediction performances were excellent this week, with mean absolute errors (MAEs) ranging MoSHBODS_Marg’s best of 25.7 points per game to Bookie_9’s worst of 27.1 points per game.
MARS_Marg currently leads on 27.9 points per game, just ahead of ENS_Linear and MoSHBODS_Marg, and Bookie_9 is currently in last place.
The all-Predictor average for the round was was 26.6 points per game, which is especially acceptable when you recognise that there were victory margins of 62, 81, 44, 46, and 59 points during the round.
Log probability scores were all positive this week and slightly higher for the MoS-based and MARS forecasters. Best, again was newcomer MARS_Prob and worst was Bookie_OE.
MARS_Prob currently heads the Leaderboard, ahead of MoSHPlay_Prob and MoSHBODS_Prob.
WAGERING
I had written off the line bet on the Eagles at half time in their game against the Suns only to be amazed that the Eagles managed to win the second half and lose by only 59 points, which turned what would have been a narrow loss for the Combined Portfolio into a 5.4c gain.
Overall, the Combined Portfolio is now up 8.4c on a +30% ROI and a 0.28 turn.
