2026 - Round 4 : Only One Short

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There are eight games this week as the League teases us with a return to our full quota next week, with all but one of them expected to be decided by less than about four goals. The eighth is, however, expected to be decided by nearer 12 goals. Combined, the average expected margin per game is just over 20 points per game.

There are four home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 25.5 points per game, skewed heavily by the Essendon game, and four away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 15.5 points per game.

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2026 - Round 3 Results - Yeah, Nah, Yeah

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It was six from sevens for all the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week except Home Sweet Home (3) and Consult The Ladder (4), which meant that there was no change at all in the Leaderboard above them.

That sees MARS_Marg still two tips ahead of the field and now on on 23 from 28 (82%), and MoSHPlay_Marg on 21 from 28 (75%) in second ahead of a pack of Tipsters one tip further back on 20 from 28 (71%).

The all-Tipster average score came in at 5.4 from 7, taking the season figure to 19.6 from 28 (70%).

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2026 - Round 3 : Oops

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There are eight games this week as the League teases us with a return to our full quota next week, with all but one of them expected to be decided by less than about four goals. The eighth is, however, expected to be decided by nearer 12 goals. Combined, the average expected margin per game is just over 20 points per game.

There are four home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 25.5 points per game, skewed heavily by the Essendon game, and four away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 15.5 points per game.

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2026 - Round 2 Results - A Little Disappointed

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The early bookmaker favourites won five of the week’s seven contests, and the very low levels of contrarian head-to-head tipping meant that only Home Sweet Home (4) and Consult The Ladder (3) scored other than five.

That left MARS_Marg still two tips ahead of the field and now on on 17 from 21 (81%), and MoSHPlay_Marg on 15 from 21 (71%) in second ahead of a chasing pack one tip further back and comprising all of the remaining Tipsters except Consult The Ladder.

The all-Tipster average score came in at 4.7 from 7, taking the season figure to 14.1 from 21 (67%).

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2026 - Round 2 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SATURDAY 6:45PM

MoSHPlay nudges Fremantle to 2 point favourites.

UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM

MoSHPlay is sticking with its bold prediction of the Dogs by 26 points tonight, and has fresh, but still preliminary, views about the Sunday games.

UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM

MoSHPlay has locked in Hawks by 13 points, and now has preliminary views on the remaining games in the round, including that Fremantle’s margin over Melbourne will be just one point.

UPDATE WEDNESDAY 7PM

MoSHPlay has it as Hawks by 13 points given the teams as listed now

2026 - Round 2 : Overs/Unders

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The entire round of Totals markets was up before 6pm on Monday, so we’ve locked in, such as it is, earlier than usual.

The bookmakers have clearly decided that the higher scoring we’ve seen in the first 14 games of the season is now a permanent feature, while MoSHBODS has allowed for some overall underlying increase, but not to the same extent.

As such MoSHBODS has lower forecasted Totals in all but one of the seven games, and by as much as 17 points in a single game.

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2026 - Round 2 : Less Bold

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We now move into a three-week period of shorter-than-maximum rounds, this week commencing with a seven-game set, all but one of which is expected by the bookmakers to be settled by less than three goals.

The outlier is the Richmond versus Gold Coast contest, which is expected to be won by closer to six goals. Combined, the average expected margin per game is 15.2 points.

There are just three home favourites with an average expected victory margin of just under 16 points per game, and four away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of just under 15 points per game.

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2026 - Team Ratings After Round 1

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MoSHBODS changed the ranking of a baker’s dozen teams this week after which it had left Western Bulldogs in 1st, but moved Hawthorn into 2nd, up by three places, and left Gold Coast in 3rd.

Other big movers were Adelaide up three into 4th, Brisbane Lions down three into 5th, and Geelong down three into 7th.

MARS moved only nine teams and arrived at the same Top 3 as MoSHBODS.

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2026 - Round 1 Results - Surprised

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What started off looking like a disappointing Sunday afternoon, finished very acceptably - but more of that later.

Just six of the early week favourites were successful this round, but that wound up being the floor rather than the ceiling to the scores from the Head-to-Head Tipsters. The new MARS_Marg algorithm was again one of the outliers, this week snagging eight of the nine winners, just ahead of Home Sweet Home’s (sic) and the MoSH twins’ sevens.

Those scores left MARS_Marg now two tips ahead of the field on 12 from 14, and Home Sweet Home and MoSHPlay_Marg in joint second on 10 from 14.

The all-Tipster average score came in at 6.6 from 9, taking the season figure to 9.4 from 14 (68%).

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2026 - Round 1 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SUNDAY 5:40PM

MoSHPlay has ended at Suns by 46 points.

UPDATE SUNDAY 12:30PM

MoSHPlay has ended at Port Adelaide by 5 points and now has preliminary forecasts of Melbourne by 11 and Gold Coast by 47 points in today’s other two games.

UPDATE THURSDAY 7:15PM

MoSHPlay is staying with Carlton by 15 points, and now has some preliminary thoughts about the remaining games in the round.

UPDATE WEDNESDAY 7PM

MoSHPlay has it as Carlton by 15 points, which nestles it pretty thoroughly in amongst the other forecasters.

2026 - Round 1 : Bold

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Amongst this week’s full round of nine games we have five that are expected to be won by less than two goals, two more expected to be won by less than 20 points, and then the outliers with handicaps of 27.5 and 59.5 points. Combined, the average expected margin per game is 18.6 points.

There are six home favourites with an average expected victory margin of just under 22 points per game, and three away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of just under 15 points per game.

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2026 - Team Ratings After Round 0

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MoSHBODS changed the ranking of a dozen teams this week after which it had Western Bulldogs in 1st, Brisbane Lions in 2nd, and Gold Coast in 3rd, all of them having a higher offensive than defensive rating and the Gold Coast being only one of two teams rising by more than a single place. Geelong was the big faller, dropping three places into 4th.

MARS also moved a dozen teams and arrived at a Top 3 of Dogs, Lions, and Hawks. The Cats also suffered the largest decline on this System, dropping four places into 5th.

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2026 - Round 0 Results - Promising

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In some seasons, your start sets you up to play catch-up for at least the next few rounds. Mercifully, this season won’t be one of them.

Three of the early week favourites were successful this week, which saw all but three of our Head-to-Head Tipsters recording that score. The outliers were the new MARS_Marg algorithm who now leads the field on four, and Consult The Ladder and MoSHBODS_Marg who trail the field on two.

The all-Tipster average score came in at 2.9 from 5.

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