2026 - Round 0 : Overs/Unders

MoSHBODS foresees lower scoring in every game of Round 0 except in the Lions v Dogs clash and, overall, has about a half-goal lower average Total than the two bookmakers.

View fullsize

The only source of agreement across the three forecasters this week about the highest- and lowest-scoring games and teams is that the Saints v Pies game will be the lowest scoring.

Highest Scoring Game

• MoSHBODS: Brisbane Lions v Western Bulldogs

• Bookmakers: Gold Coast v Geelong

Lowest Scoring Game

• All: St Kilda v Collingwood

Highest Scoring Team

• MoSHBODS: Brisbane Lions

• Bookmakers: Sydney

Lowest Scoring Team

• MoSHBODS: St Kilda

• Bookmakers: Carlton

WAGERS

MoSHBODS found four wagers this week, three unders and one over, but is passing on the overs wager due to a forecast of rain in the relevant game.

View fullsize

The more eagle-eyed amongst you might be wondering why there is no unders bet with the TAB on the Swans v Blues game. What’s preventing it is this year’s “too good to be true” prohibition of unders wagers where the estimated edge exceeds 10%. Here, it’s 21%. The rationale for the rule is purely empirical: unders wagers with estimated edges larger than this have, in aggregate, been losing propositions.

The overlays in the three games in play are between about 2.5 and 4 points, and the wagers between 0.3% and 1.2% accordingly.