2026 - Round 0 : Getting In Early

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Welcome to a new men’s AFL season. With so many AI-assisted changes, it’s hard not to be genuinely excited about watching how the year pans out and whether all the additional off-season work has been worth it.

We’re starting off slow again this season, with Round 0 - Origin Round - comprising only five games. Amongst them there are three home team favourites and two away team favourites, and all but one of the games has an expected victory margin of less than three goals. Even the least well-matched contest is only expected to be decided by about 3-and-a-half goals, so we should, in theory, be in for a round of close contests.

So, what does the 2026 cohort of forecasters think about it all?

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Home Sweet Home has provided 40% of the round’s contrarian head-to-head forecasts this week, with Consult the Ladder, MoSHBODS_Marg, and the new MARS_Marg each providing an additional single underdog tip.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are double-digit forecast ranges in three of the games, but most notably 21 points in the Saints v Pies clash.

With MoSSBODS_Marg gone, there is more competition for Extreme Predictors this week. MoSHBODS_Marg has that label in three games, and Bookie_3 and Bookie_9 in two.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, four of the five games have double-digit percentage point forecast ranges, most notably 20% points in the Saints v Pies game, and 14% points in the Giants v Hawks game.

Bookie_LPSO is the Extreme Predictor in four games this week, and MoSHBODS_Prob in three.

MoSHBODS_Prob has lower estimated win probabilities for every favourite except Collingwood.

WAGERS

There is certainly a case to be made that refraining from wagers in at least the first week of a new season is a sensible thing to do as it allows MoSHBODS time to recalibrate itself and more accurately reflect true team abilities but this year I have, again, managed to convince myself otherwise.

MoSHBODS, oblivious to its how well it has or has not attached ratings to teams, has entered the fray with two head-to-head and four line wagers, bypassing only the Lions v Dogs game in so doing.

Remarkably, despite the size of MoSHBODS’ appetite, we were spared any shenanigans this week and so have almost 6% of the Head-to-Head Fund and almost 18% of the Line Fund at risk.

The image below provides the details although I should point out that, when shenanigans inevitably commence, the wagers shown in this table will be the desired wagers, which may well differ from the actual wagers. These actual wagers will be reflected in the Ready Reckoner.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Preparing the week’s Ready Reckoner has always been something of a trial, especially in those weeks where we’ve been forced to accept wagers at different lines on the same game. One of AI’s contributions this season has been to write an R script for me that automates the process.

(Note that this image can also be clicked on to access a larger version)

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by 12.5c, while a worst case set would snip 13c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSHBODS’ and MARS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about the MoSHBODS’ Totals forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.