2025 - Round 20 Results - Try Defying Gravity

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Seven of the nine early-week favourites were successful this weekend (and an eighth had to defy fourth quarter history to lower the count by one), which, coupled once again with relatively low levels of contrarianism, saw correct tips scores of sevens, excepting Home Sweet Home’s six.

That left MoSHPlay_Marg still two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best in 1st, and ENS_Linear still three tips futher back from BKB in 3rd.

The all-Tipster average score came in at 6.9 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster average performance to 117.5 from 170 (69%).

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2025 - Round 20 : Why Not?

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All but three of this week’s games could easily get ugly, at least if bookmaker-expected margins are anything to go by. They have four contests being settled by about 7 goals or more, and two more being settled by about 5 goals. The remaining three games are all expected to have single-digit margins, which at least offers some hope for the round.

How much contrarianism then, I hear you ask. Let’s find out.

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2025 - Round 19 Results - Still on the Rinse Cycle

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Six of the nine early-week favourites were successful this weekend, which, coupled as usual with relatively low levels of contrarianism, saw correct tips scores of sixes, excepting Consult The Ladder, which managed eight, and MoSHPlay_Marg. which managed only five.

All of which meant that MoSHPlay_Marg finished the round now leading Bookie Knows Best by only two tips, with ENS_Linear still three tips behind Bookie Knows Best in 3rd.

The all-Tipster score came in at 6.1 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 110.6 from 161 (69%).

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2025 - Round 19 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SUNDAY 3PM

MoSHPlay finishes at the Pies by 3 goals.

UPDATE SUNDAY 12:45PM

MoSHPlay is staying with the Cats by 34 points but has some slightly different, but still preliminary, views on the two other Sunday games.

UPDATE THURSDAY 7:15PM

MoSHPlay is staying with the Giants by 4 goals and now has preliminary opinions about the remaining games in the round.

UPDATE WEDNESDAY 9:15PM

MoSHPlay’s preliminary view is GWS by 24 points in tomorrow night’s game.

2025 - Round 19 : Well Here I am Again, the Pretty but Naive One ...

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There’s quite the spread of expected outcomes across the nine games this weekend, with four games expected to be won by less than three goals, two more games by between three and four goals, two more by between five and six goals, and the last by just under seven goals.

That would seem to limit the opportunities for contrarian head-to-head tipping, but let’s see what we have from the models.

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2025 - Team Ratings After Round 18

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The Dogs and Pies continue to fill the Top 2 spots on both Systems, the Cats fill 4th on both, while the Lions and Crows hold down 3rd and 5th in either order depending on the System you prefer.

MoSSBODS reranked only four teams this week, switching the Lions and the Cats in 3rd and 4th, and the Giants and Power in 12th and 13th, while MoSHBODS moved eight teams, but also none by more than a single spot.

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2025 - Round 18 Results - Rinse and Repeat

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Only ive of the nine early-week favourites were successful this weekend, which, coupled with relatively low levels of contrarianism, saw correct tips scores all in the four to six range.

At the top end of that range were the MoS trio and Home Sweet Home, and at the lower end, the RSMP twins.

All of which meant that MoSHPlay_Marg finished the round now leading Bookie Knows Best by three tips, with ENS_Linear still three tips behind Bookie Knows Best in 3rd.

The all-Tipster score came in at 5.2 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 104.5 from 152 (69%).

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2025 - Round 18 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 2:45PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at the Swans by less than half a point.

UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at the Suns in an upset by 8 points.

UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay is sticking with Lions by 15 points and now has preliminary views about each of the remaining games in the round.

UPDATE 11PM WEDNESDAY

MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of the Thursday night game is Lions by 15 points.

2025 - Team Ratings After Round 17

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MoSSBODS left its Top 9 teams unchanged this week, while MoSHBODS did the same for its Top 5, which meant that the round finished with the two Systems still sharing a Top 3 of Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, and Geelong.

Altogether, MoSSBODS made only four changes and MoSHBODS only five, all single spot moves except for Sydney falling two spots to 11th and GWS rising three spots to 9th, both on MoSHBODS.

At the end of it all, the two Systems still had a common Top 3 of Dogs, Pies, and Cats..

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2025 - Round 17 Results - The Wrong Kind of Right

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All of the nine early-week favourites were successful this weekend, so, once again, contrarianism was the only reason not to tip the card.

Consult the Ladder was a one-game contrarian, and Home Sweet Home a five-game contrarian, meaning that the seven top Head-to-Head Predictors bagged 9 from 9 while Consult the Ladder bagged 8 and Home Sweet Home just 4.

All of which meant that MoSHPlay_Marg finished still leading Bookie Knows Best by two tips, with ENS_Linear still three tips behind Bookie Knows Best in 3rd.

The all-Tipster score came in at 8.3 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 99.3 from 143 (69%).

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2025 - Round 17 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SATURday 3:30PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 64 points.

UPDATE SATURday 12PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Suns by 3 goals and has some minor adjustments to its preliminary views of tomorrow’s games.

UPDATE THURSday 7:15PM

MoSHPlay is staying with Dogs by 54 points, and now has preliminary views on the rest of the round.

UPDATE Wednesday 7:15PM

MoSHPlay has - for now - the Thursday night thriller as Dogs by 9 goals

2025 - Team Ratings After Round 16

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MoSSBODS left its Top 4 teams unchanged this week, while MoSHBODS swapped Adelaide in for Brisbane Lions at position number four.

Altogether, MoSSBODS made eight changes and MoSHBODS 10, all mostly by a single spot the exceptions being Adelaide up 2 and Carlton down 2 on MoSSBODS, and Sydney up 2 and Carlton down 2 on MoSHBODS.

At the end of it all, the two Systems share a Top 3 of Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, and Geelong.

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