2025 - Round 19 : Well Here I am Again, the Pretty but Naive One ...

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There’s quite the spread of expected outcomes across the nine games this weekend, with four games expected to be won by less than three goals, two more games by between three and four goals, two more by between five and six goals, and the last by just under seven goals.

That would seem to limit the opportunities for contrarian head-to-head tipping, but let’s see what we have from the models.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Indeed, it’s only Home Sweet Home and Consult the Ladder in two games each that define the complete extent of contrarian head-to-head tipping this week.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are double-digit forecast ranges in only two games, very much most notably 34 points in the Dons v Giants clash, and, less dramatically, 15 points in the Swans v Roos clash.

Bookie_3 and MoSHBODS_Marg are the extreme Predictors in five games this week - a situation most unusual for MoSHBODS_Marg.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there is only one game with a double-digit percentage point forecast range: 25% points in the Dons v Giants game.

MoSSBODS_Prob is the extreme Predictor in six games, and MoSHBODS_Prob in five games this week.

WAGERS

MoSHBODS’ unusually high number of extreme forecasts has naturally translated into a fairly large menu of wagers, although it is so outlying in a couple of cases that our “too good to be true” (TGTBT) bet vetoing rules have kicked in and curbed its enthusiasm.

Nonetheless, Investors face seven head-to-head bets ranging in size from 0.1% to 1.6% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and five line bets ranging in size from 0.9% to 7.3% of the original Line Fund.

That large line wager is worth closer inspection, and is the only one involving shenanigans this week.

When first I entered the week’s markets mid-morning today (Monday) the line for the Dons in the Dons v Giants game was +32.5 $2.05 on the TAB, and +37.5 $1.90 on Sportsbet. Ideally, I’d have wagered 9.2% of the Fund on the Dons with SB, but they only allowed one quarter of that so I took that and then turned my attention to the TAB. They were now offering only $2 for the Dons +32.5, so I took that for another 5% of the Fund.

The Dons’ $6.70 head-to-head price was also outrageously attractive to MoSHBODS, but the estimated +107% EV triggered a TGTBT rule.

Those rules also prevented line bets on the Dogs and Roos where the estimated EVs of +7% and +9% weren’t sufficiently high to meet the minimum required for line bets on away teams.

We’ve more than enough to be worried about …

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The week’s Ready Reckoner reveals that Essendon, even without a hefty head-to-head wager, carry the most risk in the sense that the difference between a loss by 32 points and a loss by 39 points represents 9% of the original Combined Portfolio. On the same metric Carlton carry 2.3% risk, Adelaide 2.2%, Collingwood 1.8%, Hawthorn and North Melbourne 1.3%, Western Bulldogs 1%, and West Coast 0.1%.

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just under 10c, while a worst case set would snip just over 9c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.